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Time-Varying Employment Risks, Consumption Composition, and Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Nirei

    (Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University)

  • Sanjib Sarker

    (Department of Economics, Utah State University)

  • Kazufumi Yamana

    (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

This study examines the response of aggregate consumption to active labor market policies that reduce unemployment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and uninsurable unemployment as well as policy regime shocks to quantify the consumption effects of policy. By implementing numerical experiments using the model, we demonstrate a positive effect on aggregate consumption even when the policy serves as a pure transfer from the employed to the unemployed. The positive effect on consumption results from the reduced precautionary savings of the households who indirectly benefit from the policy by a decreased unemployment hazard in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Nirei & Sanjib Sarker & Kazufumi Yamana, 2014. "Time-Varying Employment Risks, Consumption Composition, and Fiscal Policy," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 035, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-992, July.
    3. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in a Tractable Liquidity‐Constrained Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 273-317, March.
    4. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in a Tractable Liquidity‐Constrained Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 273-317, March.
    5. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/mlhspkkq98obpr7vv06u9o6kq is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying idiosyncratic risk; unemployment risk; precautionary saving; regimeswitching fiscal policy; transfers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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