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An Empirical Analysis of International Stock Market Volatility Transmission

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Abstract

This paper examines the interplay between stock market returns and their volatility, focus ingon the Asian and global financial crises of 1997-98 and 2008-09 for Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. We use a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and weekly data (January 1992-June 2009). Based on the results obtained from the mean return equations, we could not find any significant impact on returns arising from the Asian crisis and more recent global financial crises across these four markets. However, both crises significantly increased the stock return volatilities across all of the four markets. Not surprisingly, it is also found that the US stock market is the most crucial market impacting on the volatilities of smaller economies such as Australia. Our results provide evidence of own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, suggesting the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. A high degree of time-varying co-volatility among these markets indicates that it is riskier for investors to diversify their financial portfolio by acquiring stocks withinthese four countries only.

Suggested Citation

  • Indika Karunanayake & Valadkhani, Abbas & O'Brien, Martin, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of International Stock Market Volatility Transmission," Economics Working Papers wp10-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp10-09
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow090523.pdf
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    1. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dahiru A. Balaa & Taro Takimotob, 2017. "Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(1), pages 25-48, March.
    2. Kralik Lóránd István, 2018. "Conditional Correlation on CEE Stock Markets," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 130-136, December.
    3. Anghelache, Gabriela Victoria & Kralik, Lorand Istvan & Acatrinei, Marius & Pete, Stefan, 2014. "Influence of the EU Accession Process and the Global Crisis on the CEE Stock Markets: A Multivariate Correlation Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-52, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Stock market volatility transmission; Multivariate GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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