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Structural Breaks in Trade and Income Per Capita in ASEAN-5 Countries: An Application of Innovational Outlier Models

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Abstract

The founder members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) – Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore – increasingly adopted outward-oriented policies in trade and investment by enforcing reforms in the mid-1980s. This paper investigates the existence of endogenously determined structural breaks of the trade and income per capita by using historical time series data during the period from 1970 to 2003 for the ASEAN-5 by applying an Innovational Outliner (IO) model in the presence of a potential structural break. We find that significant structural breaks occurred for trade per capita in the mid-1980s, which coincides with the recession in the region. We also find that significant structural breaks occurred for Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in 1997, which coincides with the Asian crisis. The Philippines experienced structural breaks in 1985, which coincides with a recession.

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  • Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2006. "Structural Breaks in Trade and Income Per Capita in ASEAN-5 Countries: An Application of Innovational Outlier Models," Economics Working Papers wp06-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade and GDP per capita; IO model; structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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