IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2020-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind?

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Valensisi

Abstract

This paper provides a preliminary assessment of COVID-19's impact on global poverty in the light of the IMF's April 2020 growth forecasts. The analysis shows that the pandemic will have dramatic consequences, eroding many of the gains recorded over the last decade in terms of poverty reduction. Our baseline case suggests that globally the number of people living below US$1.90 per day could increase by 68 million in 2020 alone, with much larger effects should the recession turn out to be more severe than expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Valensisi, 2020. "COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-73, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-73
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2020-73.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2020. "Supporting Women Throughout the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Emergency Response and Economic Recovery," World Bank Publications - Reports 33612, The World Bank Group.
    2. Laborde Debucquet, David & Martin, Will & Vos, Rob, 2020. "Poverty and food insecurity could grow dramatically as COVID-19 spreads," IFPRI book chapters, in: COVID-19 and global food security, chapter 2, pages 16-19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Daniel Gerszon Mahler & R Andrés Castañeda Aguilar & David Newhouse, 2022. "Nowcasting Global Poverty [Why Is Growth in Developing Countries So Hard to Measure?]," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(4), pages 835-856.
    4. Andy Sumner & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Christopher Hoy, 2020. "Precarity and the pandemic: COVID-19 and poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Andy Sumner & Christopher Hoy & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2020. "Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Angus Deaton & Olivier Dupriez, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates for the Global Poor," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 137-166, April.
    7. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    8. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    9. Justin Sandefur & Arvind Subramanian, 2020. "The IMF’s Growth Forecasts for Poor Countries Don’t Match Its COVID Narrative," Working Papers 533, Center for Global Development.
    10. David Laborde Debucquet & Will Martin, 2018. "Implications of the global growth slowdown for rural poverty," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 325-338, May.
    11. David Locke Newhouse & Pallavi Vyas, 2018. "Nowcasting poverty in India for 2014-15: A Survey to Survey Imputation Approach," Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note Series 6, The World Bank.
    12. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    13. Djankov, Simeon & Panizza, Ugo (ed.), 2020. "COVID-19 in Developing Economies," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p330.
    14. Anton Korinek & Johan Mistiaen & Martin Ravallion, 2006. "Survey nonresponse and the distribution of income," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 33-55, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Christopher Hoy & Andy Sumner, 2021. "The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still) Achievable?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 419-429, September.
    3. Brychka, Bohdan & Vyslobodska, Halyna & Voitovych, Nadiia, 2023. "Poverty in Ukraine: evolution of interpreting and analysis of impact factors," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(2), June.
    4. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana & Ahamed, Mostak, 2021. "COVID-19 response needs to broaden financial inclusion to curb the rise in poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    7. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2021. "Global multidimensional poverty and COVID-19: A decade of progress at risk?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    8. Björn Mestdagh & Olivier Sempiga & Luc Van Liedekerke, 2023. "The Impact of External Shocks on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Linking the COVID-19 Pandemic to SDG Implementation at the Local Government Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
    11. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    12. Christoph Lakner & Branko Milanovic, 2016. "Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(2), pages 203-232.
    13. Iuliia Pinkovetskaia & Diego Felipe Arbelaez Campillo & Magda Julissa Rojas Bahamon, 2022. "Households income in 2021: influence of Covid-19 pandemic," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 14(2), pages 541-559, June.
    14. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D'Angelo & Ida Mele, 2021. "Gendered impact of COVID-19 pandemic on research production: a cross-country analysis," Papers 2102.05360, arXiv.org.
    15. Tripathi, Gaurav & Pathak, Himanshu & Kumar, Anjani, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19-Induced National Lockdown on Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods in India: A Macro Perspective," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), September.
    16. Beglaryan, Mane & Shakhmuradyan, Gayane, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises in Armenia: Evidence from a labor force survey," Small Business International Review, Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas - AECA, vol. 4(2), pages 298-298, September.
    17. Christian-Lambert Lambert Nguena & Prince Piva Asaloko, 2023. "Financial inclusion, growth and poverty: Evidence from Africa in COVID-19 era [Inclusion financière, croissance et pauvreté à l'ère de la Covid-19 en Afrique]," Post-Print hal-04150097, HAL.
    18. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 143-154, April.
    19. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2015. "New estimates of global poverty and inequality: How much difference do price data," Working Papers 365, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    20. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: the Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/038, Research Africa Network (RAN).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Global poverty; Least Developed Countries; SDGs; Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.