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Predicting Violence within Genocides: Meso-level Evidence from Rwanda

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  • Omar Shahabudin McDoom

Abstract

Can we predict when and where violence will break out within cases of genocide? Given often weak political will to respond, knowing where to strategically prioritize limited resources is valuable information for international decision makers contemplating intervention. I develop a theoretical model to help identify areas vulnerable to violence during genocide. I argue vulnerability is a function of the state's coercive power and the ruling elite's control of this power from above, mediated by the strength of society's cohesion below.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Shahabudin McDoom, 2012. "Predicting Violence within Genocides: Meso-level Evidence from Rwanda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2012-106
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2012-106.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Verwimp, Philip, 2005. "An economic profile of peasant perpetrators of genocide: Micro-level evidence from Rwanda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 297-323, August.
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