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Boosting National Infrastructure Investment in West Java: An Analysis Using TERM CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Viktor Pirmana

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

  • Armida Alisjahbana

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

  • Irlan Adiyatma Rum

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

Abstract

It is well established that infrastructure investment plays significant role in the acceleration of development through its impact on growth, sector performance and socio-economic indicators. West Java Province is province with the largest population in Indonesia and main contributor to national GDP. In this study, the impact of increased national infrastructure investment in West Java Province is assessed using 2014 data. JaBarTERM5 CGE model is used to simulate two infrastructure investment scenarios, the moderate scenario or increase in government national infrastructure investment only, and the progressive scenario that combines government national infrastructure investment with private investment. The results indicate that under the moderate scenario, West Java GRDP increased by 1.91% (1.91 percentage point compared to baseline, while in the progressive scenario (national plus private infrastructure investment), GRDP increased by up to 3.58% (3.58 percentage point compared to baseline). However, there are differential responses at district level. Districts that experience the highest increase in GRDP are districts close to industrial areas in the vicinity of Jakarta and Bandung. When viewed from its impact on provincial employment, it increases by 2.27% (2.27 percentage point compared to the baseline case) under the progressive scenario. The employment impact is particularly more pronounced in districts that are industrial areas. Sectors that experience increase in their production are Cements, Papers, Textiles, Food Crops, and Transportation Services. Another result is an increase in the prices of Real Estate, and Business and Financial Services, while the price (cost) of trade and transport sector has decreased due to an increase in the access and quality of infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktor Pirmana & Armida Alisjahbana & Irlan Adiyatma Rum, 2015. "Boosting National Infrastructure Investment in West Java: An Analysis Using TERM CGE Model," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201507, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201507
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    2. Mark Horridge, 2011. "The TERM model and its data base," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-219, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Muhammad Imran & Javeria Niazi, 2011. "Infrastructure and Growth," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 355-364.
    4. Mark Horridge & Glyn Wittwer, 2007. "The economic impacts of a construction project, using SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-164, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Infrastructure Investment; TERM CGE model; West Java Province;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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