IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v222y2012i1p96-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions

Author

Listed:
  • Ye, Wuyi
  • Liu, Xiaoquan
  • Miao, Baiqi

Abstract

In this paper, we first determine the existence of structural changes in the dependence between time series of equity index returns of two markets using the change point testing method. The method is based on Archimedean copula functions, which are able to comprehensively describe dependence characteristics of random variables. The degree of financial contagion between markets is subsequently estimated using the tail dependence coefficient of copula functions before and after the change point. We empirically test our method by investigating financial contagion during the subprime crisis between the US S&P 500 index and five Asian markets, namely China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our results show that a statistically significant change point exists in the dependence between the US market and all Asian stock markets except Taiwan. The upper tail dependence is larger after the time of change, implying the existence of contagion during the banking crisis between the US and the Asian economies. The degree of financial contagion is also estimated and found to be consistent with market events and media reports during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Wuyi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Miao, Baiqi, 2012. "Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 96-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:222:y:2012:i:1:p:96-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221712002809
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    2. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    3. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    5. Paul Embrechts & Marius Hofert, 2011. "Comments on: Inference in multivariate Archimedean copula models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(2), pages 263-270, August.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
    8. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    9. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Contagion around the October 1987 stock market crash," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 291-310, January.
    10. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    11. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    12. Ostermark, Ralf, 2001. "Multivariate cointegration analysis of the Finnish-Japanese stock markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 498-507, November.
    13. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    14. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173, March.
    15. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    17. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    18. Alexandra Dias & Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Testing for structural changes in exchange rates' dependence beyond linear correlation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 619-637.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    20. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    21. Klugman, Stuart A. & Parsa, Rahul, 1999. "Fitting bivariate loss distributions with copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 139-148, March.
    22. Carmela Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(3), pages 633-663.
    23. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    24. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    25. Selma Jayech & Naceur Ben Zina, 2011. "A copula-based approach to financial contagion in the foreign exchange markets," International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 636-657.
    26. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 787-815, September.
    27. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1179-1204, December.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    4. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Padhi, Puja, 2012. "Emerging markets and financial crises: Regional, global or isolated shocks?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 24-38.
    5. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    6. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "Contagion and interdependence across Asia-Pacific equity markets: An analysis based on multi-horizon discrete and continuous wavelet transformations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 363-377.
    7. Hans Manner & Bertrand Candelon, 2010. "Testing For Asset Market Linkages: A New Approach Based On Time‐Varying Copulas," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 364-384, August.
    8. Imen Bedoui-Belghith & Slaheddine Hallara & Faouzi Jilani, 2023. "Crisis transmission degree measurement under crisis propagation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, January.
    9. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
    11. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    13. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    14. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    15. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    16. Cai, Charlie X. & Mobarek, Asma & Zhang, Qi, 2017. "International stock market leadership and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 150-162.
    17. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    18. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Masih, Rumi & Masih, Mansur & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2014. "Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 553-571.
    20. Michael A. Goldstein & Joseph McCarthy & Alexei G. Orlov, 2019. "The Core, Periphery, and Beyond: Stock Market Comovements among EU and Non‐EU Countries," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 5-56, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:222:y:2012:i:1:p:96-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.