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A mudan a do regime cambial portugu s: Um balan o 15 anos depois de Maastricht

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  • Jorge Braga de Macedo

Abstract

A mudan a de regime para a estabilidade e convertibilidade cambiais deve ser enquadrada numa mudan a de regime econ mico e financeiro. A parte monet ria foi feita por press o europeia directa mas n o se pode mudar a constitui o fiscal a partir de fora. Para tal, n o bastam tratados nem pactos com restri es s despesas e receitas p blicas, porque a constitui o fiscal assenta num processo or amental que reflecte o sistema pol tico. A falta de complementaridade entre pol ticas explica que as nossas reformas n o tenham durado o suficiente para que as empresas se sintam parte interessada. O resultado da boleia de juros foi uma procura excessiva de bens e servi os transaccion veis por parte dos residentes, que se manifestou quer na despesa em bens e servi os importados ou export veis. Tendo em conta a baixa classifica o de Portugal em termos de produtividade e tamb m em termos de atractividade para o investor, n o se vai realizar o alto potencial exportador sem alterar os pre os relativos. O balan o 15 anos depois de Maastricht pois de que, sem uma estrat gia sustentada de reformas, o potencial exportador n o se pode realizar. Sem realizar esse potencial, n o se pode restaurar uma diferencialidade portuguesa assente nas perten as e liberdades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Braga de Macedo, 2007. "A mudan a do regime cambial portugu s: Um balan o 15 anos depois de Maastricht," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp502, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. André Sapir, 2006. "Globalization and the Reform of European Social Models," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 369-390, June.
    2. Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
    3. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luis Catela Nunes & Luis Brites Pereira, 2003. "Central bank intervenyion under target zones: the portuguese escudo in the ERM," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp435, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
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