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Stochastic bio-economic model of Northern Atlantic and Mediterranean Bluefin Tuna

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  • Ana Brasao

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the implications of introducing a stochastic stock in a multi-gear and age structured bio-economic model for the Northern Atlantic Bluefin tuna. In order to account for variations on the recruitment, uncertainty is introduced on a bilinear recruitment function, and it is represented by an exponential random error term leading the stock to be, on average, higher than in the deterministic case. Both the bionomic equilibrium and the optimal management of this species are examined. In the latter, two alternative instruments are studied: the constant total allowable catch and the constant effort and the purpose is to maximize the expected total net present value. The conclusions enhance that the results do not differ significantly from those in the eterministic model, that is, the fishing effort should be the policy instrument to adopt, both in the East and the West Atlantic. Despite the previous reasoning, the shock on recruitment should be taken into account, as certain realizations of the random variable may lead to different results. In particular, for low Bluefin tuna stock levels, it is optimal to regulate the caches instead of the fishing effort, to ensure the stock recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Brasao, 2000. "Stochastic bio-economic model of Northern Atlantic and Mediterranean Bluefin Tuna," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp380, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp380
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert S. Pindyck, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303.
    2. Bjorndal, Trond, 1988. "The optimal management of North Sea Herring," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-29, March.
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