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¿Cual es el efecto de shocks de demanda interna sobre la inflacion en una economia pequena y abierta? Chile 2000-2021

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  • Ramon E. Lopez
  • Kevin Sepulveda

Abstract

Este estudio intenta descomponer los diversos factores que determinan la inflacion en Chile durante el periodo 2000-2021. Encontramos que los principales determinantes de la inflacion interna son de origen externo y el tipo de cambio. La demanda interna ha jugado un rol mas bien limitado como factor inflacionario. En general en periodos normales los aumentos de demanda interna explican no mas de un 20% de la inflacion observada. La inflacion promedio mensual observada durante el periodo 2000-2021 alcanzo un 0,3%. De eso estimamos que los aumentos de demanda en periodos normales explican una inflacion de 0.06% mensual. Sorprendentemente, los extraordinarios periodos de rapida aceleracion de la demanda como efecto de politicas fiscales altamente expansivas y/o retiros de AFP tuvieron un efecto mas bien modesto en la aceleracion de la inflacion. Solamente en los ultimos 5 meses de 2021 podemos detectar un efecto de expansion de la demanda cuando explica casi un 33% de la aceleracion inflacionaria que ocurre en esos meses. Este estudio corrobora un hecho esperable para una economia pequena y abierta como la chilena; la mayor parte de la inflacion domestica esta determinada por la inflacion externa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon E. Lopez & Kevin Sepulveda, 2022. "¿Cual es el efecto de shocks de demanda interna sobre la inflacion en una economia pequena y abierta? Chile 2000-2021," Working Papers wp529, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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