IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ube/dpvwib/dp0603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discounting The Global Climate When Technological Change is Endogenous

Author

Listed:
  • Gunter Stephan
  • Georg M ller-F rstenberger

Abstract

There are two polar views on the issue of discounting. One is to focus on intergenerational equity which means discounting utilities at low rates. Alternatively, the focus is on efficiency where the choice of the discount rate should imply rates of return that are similar to those that prevail in the capital markets. This paper analyses how different discount rates affect greenhouse gas abatement and endogenous technological change. Starting point is a simple analytical model where we show that higher discount rates cannot result in smaller stocks of atmospheric carbon. However, we cannot rule out the paradoxical result that a higher discount rate may lead to a higher knowledge stock. Therefore an Integrated Assessment Model is set up to take a closer look into the time pattern of emissions. Surprisingly, low discount rates lead to a sharp increase in emissions during the beginning of the time horizon, which, however, is overcompensated through higher efforts in greenhouse gas mitigation during the rest of the time horizon. Furthermore, at low discount rates, the potential to save energy through technological innovation is utilized faster and more pronounced than with higher discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunter Stephan & Georg M ller-F rstenberger, 2006. "Discounting The Global Climate When Technological Change is Endogenous," Diskussionsschriften dp0603, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0603
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.vwiit.ch/dp/dp0603.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reyer Gerlagh & Bob van der Zwaan & Marjan Hofkes & Ger Klaassen, 2004. "Impacts of CO 2 -Taxes in an Economy with Niche Markets and Learning-by-Doing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(3), pages 367-394, July.
    2. Burmeister, Edwin & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1972. "Capital Deepening Response in an Economy with Heterogeneous Capital Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 842-853, December.
    3. Dieter Bräuninger, 2003. "Demographics and Pension Reforms in the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(1), pages 117-132, January.
    4. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    6. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1996. "Discounting, Morality, and Gaming," Working Papers 97004, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    7. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mathai, Koshy, 2000. "Optimal CO2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-38, January.
    8. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 4(2), pages 121-141, April.
    9. repec:bla:kyklos:v:51:y:1998:i:3:p:321-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muller-Furstenberger, Georg & Stephan, Gunter, 2007. "Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5298-5309, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sue Wing, Ian, 2006. "Representing induced technological change in models for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 539-562, November.
    2. Georg M ller-F rstenberger & Gunter Stephan, 2005. "Intensity Targeting or Emission CAPS: Non-Cooperative Climate Change Policies and Technological Change," Diskussionsschriften dp0502, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    3. Mitra, Tapan, 2002. "Intertemporal Equity and Efficient Allocation of Resources," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 356-376, December.
    4. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2011. "Climate change mitigation options and directed technical change: A decentralized equilibrium analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 938-962.
    5. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2007. "Innovation Markets in the Policy Appraisal of Climate Change Mitigation," IDEI Working Papers 481, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    6. Onno J. Kuik & Barbara Bucher & Michela Catenacci & Etem Karakaya & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies," Working Papers FNU-122, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006.
    7. Cameron Hepburn, 2003. "Hyperbolic Discounting and Resource Collapse," Economics Series Working Papers 159, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2009. "Social discounting under uncertainty: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 140-150, March.
    10. David Popp, 2003. "ENTICE: Endogenous Technological Change in the DICE Model of Global Warming," NBER Working Papers 9762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lucas Bretschger & Thomas M. Steger, 2004. "The dynamics of economic integration: Theory and policy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 119-134, January.
    12. Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 641-656.
    13. Bretschger, Lucas, 2005. "Economics of technological change and the natural environment: How effective are innovations as a remedy for resource scarcity?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 148-163, August.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shiell, Leslie & Lyssenko, Nikita, 2014. "Climate policy and induced R&D: How great is the effect?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 279-294.
    16. Grimaud, André & Lafforgue, Gilles & Magné, Bertrand, 2008. "Decentralized Equilibrium Analysis in a Growth Model with Directed Technical Change and Climate Change Mitigation," IDEI Working Papers 537, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    17. Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg & Stephan, Gunter, 2011. "What really matters: Discounting, technological change and sustainable climate," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 978-987, March.
    18. Smulders, J.A. & de Nooij, M., 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Other publications TiSEM c4db0986-2132-4216-aa53-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Florentine Schwark, 2010. "Economics of Endogenous Technical Change in CGE Models - The Role of Gains from Specialization," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/130, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    20. GRIMAUD André & LAFFORGUE Gilles & MAGNE Bertrand, 2007. "Economic growth and Climate change in a decentralized Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach," LERNA Working Papers 07.04.225, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    21. Areendam Chanda & Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Selin Sayek, 2006. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages," Departmental Working Papers 2006-13, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated Assessment; discount rate; endogenous technological change; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Franz Koelliker (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vwibech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.