IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tur/wpapnw/087.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Incompetent Politicians Breed Populist Voters? Evidence from Italian Municipalities

Author

Listed:
  • Boffa Federico

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen/Bolzano and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy;)

  • Mollisi Vincenzo

    (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Torino, Torino, Italy;)

  • Ponzetto A. M. Giacomo

    (CREI, UPF, IPEG and BSE, Spain;)

Abstract

Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards anti- establishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide an empirical test exploiting a sharp discontinuity in the wage of local politicians as a function of population in Italian municipalities. We find that the more skilled local politicians and more effective local government in municipalities above the threshold cause a significant drop in voter support for the populist Five-Star Movement in regional and national elections. Support for incumbent governing parties increases instead.

Suggested Citation

  • Boffa Federico & Mollisi Vincenzo & Ponzetto A. M. Giacomo, 2024. "Do Incompetent Politicians Breed Populist Voters? Evidence from Italian Municipalities," Working papers 087, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    • Handle: RePEc:tur:wpapnw:087
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bemservizi.unito.it/repec/tur/wpapnw/m87.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Piketty, 2018. "Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right: Rising Inequality & the Changing Structure of Political Conflict," Working Papers hal-02878211, HAL.
    2. Bagues, Manuel & Campa, Pamela, 2021. "Can gender quotas in candidate lists empower women? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Davezies, Laurent & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2017. "Regression discontinuity design with continuous measurement error in the running variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 260-281.
    4. Massimo Bordignon & Tommaso Colussi, 2020. "Dancing with the Populist. New Parties, Electoral Rules and Italian Municipal Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 8626, CESifo.
    5. Federico Boffa & Amedeo Piolatto & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2012. "Centralization and accountability: theory and evidence from the Clean Air Act," Working Papers 2012/14, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    6. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Rocío Titiunik, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 442-451, July.
    7. Ben Lockwood & Francesco Porcelli & Michela Redoano & Antonio Schiavone & Benjamin Lockwood, 2022. "Does Data Disclosure Improve Local Government Performance? Evidence from Italian Municipalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 10155, CESifo.
    8. Federico Boffa & Amedeo Piolatto & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2011. "Political centralization and government accountability," Economics Working Papers 1335, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2015.
    9. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    10. Ruben Durante & Paolo Pinotti & Andrea Tesei, 2019. "The Political Legacy of Entertainment TV," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2497-2530, July.
    11. repec:dgr:kubcen:2012033 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Benedetto Marco Alberto De & Paola Maria De, 2017. "Candidates’ Education and Turnout: Evidence from Italyn Municipal Elections," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 22-50, February.
    13. David Bartolini & Raffaella Santolini, 2012. "Political yardstick competition among Italian municipalities on spending decisions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), pages 213-235, August.
    14. Massimiliano Agovino & Maria Ferrara & Katia Marchesano & Antonio Garofalo, 2020. "The separate collection of recyclable waste materials as a flywheel for the circular economy: the role of institutional quality and socio-economic factors," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 659-681, July.
    15. Federico Boffa & Amedeo Piolatto & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2016. "Political Centralization and Government Accountability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 381-422.
    16. Peter Egger & Marko Koethenbuerger, 2010. "Government Spending and Legislative Organization: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Germany," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 200-212, October.
    17. Marika Cioffi & Giovanna Messina & Pietro Tommasino, 2012. "Parties, institutions and political budget cycles at the municipal level," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 885, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    19. Bracco, Emanuele & Porcelli, Francesco & Redoano, Michela, 2019. "Political competition, tax salience and accountability. Theory and evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 138-163.
    20. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    21. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    22. Bordignon, Massimo & Grembi, Veronica & Piazza, Santino, 2017. "Who do you blame in local finance? An analysis of municipal financing in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 146-163.
    23. Baltrunaite, Audinga & Casarico, Alessandra & Profeta, Paola & Savio, Giulia, 2019. "Let the voters choose women," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    24. Ruben Durante & Paolo Pinotti & Andrea Tesei, 2019. "The Political Legacy of Entertainment TV," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03948081, HAL.
    25. Christopher Berry, 2008. "Piling On: Multilevel Government and the Fiscal Common‐Pool," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 802-820, October.
    26. Luca Repetto, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles with Informed Voters: Evidence from Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(616), pages 3320-3353, December.
    27. Besley, Timothy J. & Rosen, Harvey S., 1998. "Vertical externalities in tax setting: evidence from gasoline and cigarettes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 383-398, December.
    28. Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido, 2013. "Electoral rules and voter turnout," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-35.
    29. Gamalerio, Matteo, 2020. "Do national political parties matter? Evidence from Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    30. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    31. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives From Selection," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 369-398, April.
    32. Klašnja, Marko & Titiunik, Rocío, 2017. "The Incumbency Curse: Weak Parties, Term Limits, and Unfulfilled Accountability," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 129-148, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federico Boffa & Vincenzo Mollisi & Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2023. "Do incompetent politicians breed populist voters? Evidence from Italian municipalities," Economics Working Papers 1861, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Anna Harvey, 2020. "Applying regression discontinuity designs to American political development," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(3), pages 377-399, December.
    3. Gianmarco Daniele & Tommaso Giommoni, 2019. "Corruption under Austerity," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19131, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Britto, Diogo G.C. & Fiorin, Stefano, 2020. "Corruption and legislature size: Evidence from Brazil," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "A Costly Commitment: Populism, Government Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 9470, CESifo.
    6. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2020. "Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Massimo Bordignon & Tommaso Colussi, 2020. "Dancing with the Populist. New Parties, Electoral Rules and Italian Municipal Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 8626, CESifo.
    8. Casarico, Alessandra & Lattanzio, Salvatore & Profeta, Paola, 2022. "Women and local public finance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Bruce, Raphael & Cavgias, Alexsandros & Meloni, Luis & Remígio, Mário, 2022. "Under pressure: Women’s leadership during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. repec:irs:cepswp:2024-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fernando Aragón & Ricardo Pique, 2020. "Better the devil you know? Reelected politicians and policy outcomes under no term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Kansikas, Carolina & Bagues, Manuel, 2024. "Can term limits accelerate women's access to top political positions? Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 19306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile Internet and the Rise of Communitarian Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 9955, CESifo.
    15. Kuliomina, Jekaterina, 2021. "Do personal characteristics of councilors affect municipal budget allocation?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose & Pasquale Giacobbe, 2023. "The effect of female representation on political budget cycle and public expenditure: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 97-145, March.
    17. Amrita Dhillon & Pramila Krishnan & Manasa Patnam & Carlo Perroni, 2020. "Secession with Natural Resources," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(631), pages 2207-2248.
    18. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Luca Bellodi & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2021. "The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21158, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Alpino, Matteo & Asatryan, Zareh & Blesse, Sebastian & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Austerity and distributional policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 112-127.
    21. Massimiliano Ferraresi & Leonzio Rizzo & Alberto Zanardi, 2015. "Policy outcomes of single and double-ballot elections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(6), pages 977-998, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Government efficiency; Politician quality; Political agency.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tur:wpapnw:087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Pennesi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dstorit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.