IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tul/ceqwps/112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Enami
  • Ugo Gentilini
  • Patricio Larroulet
  • Nora Lustig
  • Emma Monsalve
  • Siyu Quan
  • Jamele Rigolini

Abstract

Using microsimulations this paper analyzes the poverty and tax implications of replacing current transfers and subsidies by a budget-neutral (no change in the fiscal deficit) universal basic income program (UBI) in Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa. We consider three UBI transfers with increasing levels of generosity and identify scenarios in which the poor are no worse off than in the baseline scenario of existing social transfers. We find that for poverty levels not to increase under a UBI reform, the level of spending must increase substantially with respect to the baseline. Accordingly, the required increase in tax burdens is high throughout. In our five countries and scenarios, the least increase in taxes required to avoid poverty to be higher than in the baseline is around 25% (Brazil and Chile). Even at this lower rate, political resistance and efficiency costs could limit the feasibility of a UBI reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Enami & Ugo Gentilini & Patricio Larroulet & Nora Lustig & Emma Monsalve & Siyu Quan & Jamele Rigolini, 2021. "Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 112, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tul:ceqwps:112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.tulane.edu/RePEc/ceq/ceq112.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen, 2017. "Welfare-Consistent Global Poverty Measures," NBER Working Papers 23739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Diego Daruich & Raquel Fernández, 2024. "Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 38-88, January.
    3. Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2018. "Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 201-226, Fall.
    4. Mr. David Coady & Delphine Prady, 2018. "Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Issues, Options, and Illustration for India," IMF Working Papers 2018/174, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jolliffe, Dean & Prydz, Espen Beer, 2015. "Global Poverty Goals and Prices: How Purchasing Power Parity Matters," IZA Discussion Papers 9064, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Brown, Caitlin & Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 2018. "A poor means test? Econometric targeting in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 109-124.
    7. Hanna, Rema & Olken, Benjamin A., 2018. "Universal Basic Incomes vs. Targeted Transfers: Anti-Poverty Programs in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp18-024, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. James Browne & Herwig Immervoll, 2017. "Mechanics of replacing benefit systems with a basic income: comparative results from a microsimulation approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(4), pages 325-344, December.
    9. Sean Higgins & Claudiney Pereira, 2013. "The effects of Brazil's high taxation and social spending on the distribution of household income," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 07, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
    10. Martinez Aguilar,Sandra Natalia & Fuchs Tarlovsky,Alan & Ortiz-Juarez,Eduardo & Del Carmen Hasbun,Giselle Eugenia, 2017. "The impact of fiscal policy on inequality and poverty in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7939, The World Bank.
    11. Ravi Kanbur & Tuuli Paukkeri & Jukka Pirttilä & Matti Tuomala, 2018. "Optimal taxation and public provision for poverty reduction," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 64-98, February.
    12. Ortiz, Isabel, & Behrendt, Christina. & Acuña-Ulate, Andrés. & Nguyen, Quynh Anh., 2018. "Universal basic income proposals in light of ILO standards key issues and global costing," ILO Working Papers 995008692502676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Tuomala, Matti, 1990. "Optimal Income Tax and Redistribution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286059.
    14. Nora Lustig & Jon Jellema & Valentina Martinez Pabon, 2019. "Leaving No One Behind: Can Tax-Funded Transfer Programs Provide Income Floors in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 85, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    15. Dean Jolliffe & Espen Beer Prydz, 2016. "Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(2), pages 185-198, June.
    16. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2597.
    17. Salanié, Bernard, 2011. "The Economics of Taxation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262016346, April.
    18. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    19. Ray C. Fair, 1971. "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 85(4), pages 551-579.
    20. Sean Higgins & Claudiney Pereira, 2013. "The effects of Brazil's high taxation and social spending on the distribution of household income," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1307, Tulane University, Department of Economics, revised May 2013.
    21. Luis F. Lopez-Calva & Nora Lustig & Mikhail Matytsin & Daria Popova, 2017. "Who Benefits from Fiscal Redistribution in the Russian Federation?," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 39, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    22. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 929-958, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John R. Scott & Ricardo Massa & Ana Cecilia Parada, 2024. "Distributive Impact of Green Taxes in Mexico," Working Paper d237a40f-8742-49a5-b30a-0, Agence française de développement.
    2. Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota & de Siqueira, Rozane Bezerra & Candido, Carlos Henrique de Sousa & Nogueira, José Ricardo, 2024. "Spatially blind but regionally progressive? Effects of a universal basic income on regional welfare inequality in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 18(1), pages 1-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nora Lustig & Jon Jellema & Valentina Martinez Pabon, 2023. "Are Budget Neutral Income Floors Fiscally Viable in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 202-227.
    2. Gray Molina George & Montoya-Aguirre María & Ortiz-Juarez Eduardo, 2022. "Temporary Basic Income in Times of Pandemic: Rationale, Costs and Poverty-Mitigation Potential," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 125-154, December.
    3. Blumkin, Tomer & Sadka, Efraim & Shem-Tov, Yotam, 2011. "Labor Migration and the Case for Flat Tax," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275759, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Armenter, Roc & Mertens, Thomas M., 2013. "Fraud deterrence in dynamic Mirrleesian economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 139-151.
    5. Pertti Haaparanta & Ravi Kanbur & Tuuli Paukkeri & Jukka Pirttilä & Matti Tuomala, 2022. "Promoting education under distortionary taxation: equality of opportunity versus welfarism," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 281-297, June.
    6. Daniel Bjorkegren & Joshua E. Blumenstock & Samsun Knight, 2020. "Manipulation-Proof Machine Learning," Papers 2004.03865, arXiv.org.
    7. Emily Aiken & Suzanne Bellue & Dean Karlan & Christopher R. Udry & Joshua Blumenstock, 2021. "Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data Can Improve the Targeting of Humanitarian Assistance," NBER Working Papers 29070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robin Boadway, 1998. "The Mirrlees Approach to the Theory of Economic Policy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 5(1), pages 67-81, February.
    9. Nora Lustig, 2016. "Commitment to Equity Handbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 1301, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    10. Tomer Blumkin & Efraim Sadka & Yotam Shem-Tov, 2015. "International tax competition: zero tax rate at the top re-established," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(5), pages 760-776, October.
    11. Abhijit Banerjee & Paul Niehaus & Tavneet Suri, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the Developing World," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 959-983, August.
    12. Borga, Liyousew G. & D’Ambrosio, Conchita, 2021. "Social protection and multidimensional poverty: Lessons from Ethiopia, India and Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Malerba, Daniele & Gaentzsch, Anja & Ward, Hauke, 2021. "Mitigating poverty: The patterns of multiple carbon tax and recycling regimes for Peru," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Siameh, Celestine O., 2020. "Universal Basic Income, Targeted Cash Transfers, and Progressive Taxation: Reducing Income Inequality in South Africa," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304571, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Schnitzer,Pascale & Stoeffler,Quentin, 2021. "Targeting for Social Safety Nets : Evidence from Nine Programs in the Sahel," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9816, The World Bank.
    16. Hilary W. Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries," NBER Working Papers 25538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Della Guardia, Anne & Lake, Milli & Schnitzer, Pascale, 2022. "Selective inclusion in cash transfer programs: Unintended consequences for social cohesion," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Hema Shah & Lisa A. Gennetian, 2024. "Unconditional cash transfers for families with children in the U.S.: a scoping review," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 415-450, June.
    19. Maxim Troshkin & Aleh Tsyvinski & Mikhail Golosov, 2010. "Optimal Dynamic Taxes," 2010 Meeting Papers 320, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. H. Xavier Jara & María Gabriela Palacio Ludeña, 2024. "Rethinking social assistance amid the COVID‐19 pandemic: Guaranteeing the right to income security in Ecuador," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1738-1764, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Universal basic income; microsimulation; inequality; poverty; tax incidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tul:ceqwps:112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nora Lustig (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/detulus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.