The Effect of Climate Change on Internal Migration: Evidence from Micro Census Data of 16 Sub-Saharan African Countries

Applying a Panel Fixed Effect model to a large dataset of migration and local weather conditions in 16 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study estimates the impacts of long-term weather aberrations on within-country migration. To address potential omitted variable bias, this study accounts for weather conditions in alternative places of residence–an aspect which has been overlooked by previous studies. Results establish a causal link between climate change and migration, but this effect is observed primarily in a block of West SSA countries. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long-term changes in weather (specifically rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long term changes in weather (rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. Quantitatively, this study finds that over the last 30 years, an average annual rainfall decline of 120mm increased internal migration by 14 percentage points while a sustained average temperature increase of 0.5°C resulted in an 8 percentage point rise in internal relocation. However, temperature fluctuations are found to lowered the odds of out-migration by 22 percentage points. Additional findings reveal that increasing temperatures force climate migrants to travel to much farther destination areas. However, we do not find evidence that adverse rainfall outcomes increase relocation distance. Additionally, We establish that climate migrants tend to relocate from rural districts to urban centers. Finally, We obtain evidence that climate-related mobility involves relocation of a family units, as suggested by the significance of climate mobility of young children (less than 12 years old). Meanwhile, when the same specifications are applied on East SSA, we find weak evidence of climate-related mobility in this region.