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An empirical examination of the relation between futures spreads volatility, volume, and open interest

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  • Paul Berhanu Girma
  • Mbodja Mougoué

Abstract

This study investigates the relation between petroleum futures spread variability, trading volume, and open interest in an attempt to uncover the source(s) of variability in futures spreads. The study finds that contemporaneous (lagged) volume and open interest provide significant explanation for futures spreads volatility when entered separately. The study also shows that lagged volume and lagged open interest, when entered in the conditional variance equation simultaneously, have greater effect on volatility and substantially reduce the persistence of volatility. This finding seems to support the sequential information arrival hypothesis of Copeland (1976). Finally, the findings of this study also suggest a degree of market inefficiency in petroleum futures spreads. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1083–1102, 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Berhanu Girma & Mbodja Mougoué, 2002. "An empirical examination of the relation between futures spreads volatility, volume, and open interest," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(11), pages 1083-1102, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:22:y:2002:i:11:p:1083-1102
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    Cited by:

    1. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Index futures volatility and trading activity: Measuring causality at a multiple horizon," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 247-255.
    2. Heejoon Han & Dennis Kristensen, 2014. "Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models With Stationary and Nonstationary Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 416-429, July.
    3. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Lahiani, Amine & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Uncovering the complex asymmetric relationship between trading activity and commodity futures price: Evidenced from QNARDL study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Luo, Xingguo & Ye, Zinan, 2015. "Predicting volatility of the Shanghai silver futures market: What is the role of the U.S. options market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 68-77.
    5. Yang, Heejin & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Volatility information trading in the index options market: An intraday analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 412-426.
    6. Haugom, Erik & Langeland, Henrik & Molnár, Peter & Westgaard, Sjur, 2014. "Forecasting volatility of the U.S. oil market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Shu-Fang Yuan, 2024. "Realized higher moments and trading activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 971-1005, April.
    8. Doojin RYU & Hyein SHIM, 2017. "Intraday Dynamics of Asset Returns, Trading Activities, and Implied Volatilities: A Trivariate GARCH Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 45-61, June.
    9. Christos Floros, 2007. "Price and Open Interest in Greek Stock Index Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 191-202, May.
    10. Liu, Zhichao & Ma, Feng & Long, Yujia, 2015. "High and low or close to close prices? Evidence from the multifractal volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 50-61.
    11. Luo, Xingguo & Qin, Shihua & Ye, Zinan, 2016. "The information content of implied volatility and jumps in forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Shanghai gold futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 105-111.
    12. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
    13. Sibel ?EL?K, 2013. "New Evidence on the Relation between Trading Volume and Volatility," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 176-186, June.
    14. Kam Fong Chan & Philip Gray, 2017. "Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 71-89, January.
    15. Karthika P. DEVAN & Johney JOHNSON, 2021. "A pragmatic evaluation of the interconnection between currency futures return volatility, open interest and volume," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 289-296, Spring.
    16. An-Sing Chen & Hui-Jyuan Gao & Mark Leung, 2008. "Is Trading Imbalance a Better Explanatory Factor in the Volatility Process? Intraday and Daily Evidence from E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures and Information-Based Hypotheses," Working Papers 0039, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    17. Zheng, Yao, 2015. "The linkage between aggregate investor sentiment and metal futures returns: A nonlinear approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 128-142.
    18. Tribhuvan N. Puri & George C. Philippatos, 2008. "Asymmetric Volume‐Return Relation and Concentrated Trading in LIFFE Futures," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 528-563, June.
    19. Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
    20. Bernales, Alejandro & Verousis, Thanos & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2020. "Do investors follow the herd in option markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    21. Bu, Ruijun & Kim, Jihyun & Wang, Bin, 2023. "Uniform and Lp convergences for nonparametric continuous time regressions with semiparametric applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1934-1954.
    22. Hiren Patel, 2021. "Target Price Achievement and Target Price Accuracy Models: An Analysis of Advisory Firms’ Recommendation for the Indian Banking Stocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 459-473, April.

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