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Leader Similarity and International Sanctions

Author

Listed:
  • Jerg Gutmann
  • Pascal Langer
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

Political leaders matter, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is scarce. We estimate panel probit models with data for the period 1970 to 2004 and sender-year and dyad fixed effects to evaluate whether more similar leaders are less likely to sanction each other. We find that higher leader similarity significantly reduces the likelihood of sanction imposition. The effect is especially pronounced when UN and EU sanctions are excluded, that is, when focusing on sanctions imposed through unilateral political decisions. In this case, going from no correlation to perfect correlation in the characteristics of the leader pair lowers the likelihood of sanctions by 5.7 pp. Moreover, leader similarity seems to matter especially for sanctions aimed at democratic change or human rights improvements, where political leaders are expected to enjoy more discretion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerg Gutmann & Pascal Langer & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2024. "Leader Similarity and International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:202411
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International sanctions; Leader similarity; Political leaders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law

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