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Balanced-budget fiscal stimuli of investment and welfare value

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  • Cesare Dosi
  • Michele Moretto
  • Roberto Tamborini

Abstract

Is a fiscal stimulus of investment a viable complement to, or substitute for, monetary policy? We address this issue by means of real option valuation of a business investment which generates private as well as public benefits. A surge in uncertainty about private profitability delays investment to an extent that may not be offset by monetary policy (conventional or not). Turning to fiscal policy, we examine the welfare effects of different policy schemes: (i) a simple subsidy on investment, (ii) a balanced-budget stimulus where the subsidy is subsequently covered by profit taxation, and (iii) by taxing public benefits as well. We show that, under a balanced- budget stimulus, investment acceleration may come at the expense of decreased total (private and public) welfare and that the higher is uncertainty about private returns, the more likely is a net efficiency loss. However, the risk of such negative outcome strongly declines when the government spending is balanced by taxing both private and public returns on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Balanced-budget fiscal stimuli of investment and welfare value," DEM Working Papers 2019/12, Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwprg:2019/12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; Fiscal stimulus; balanced-budget contraints; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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