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Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case.A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015

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  • Miguel D. Ramirez

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

Abstract

This paper examines whether public investment spending and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) enhance labor productivity growth in Argentina. It presents a simple modified production function that explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by increases in the stock of public or FDI capital. The paper estimates a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960-2015 period that incorporates the impact of public and private investment spending, education expenditures (at all levels), the labor force, and export growth. It tests for both single and two-break unit root tests, as well as performs cointegration tests with an endogenously determined shift over the 1960-2015 period. Cointegration analysis suggests that a long-term relationship exists among the relevant variables. The error correction (EC) models suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending and education have a positive and significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the model is estimated for a shorter period (1970-2015)to capture the impact of inward FDI flows. The estimates suggest that (lagged) FDI flows have a positive and significant impact on labor productivity growth, while increases in the labor force have a negative effect. From a policy standpoint, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries, including Argentina during the 1990s and 2000s, of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on education and infrastructure to meet reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP. The results give further support to pro-investment and pro-growth policies designed to promote public investment spending and attract inward FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel D. Ramirez, 2019. "Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case.A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015," Working Papers 1904, Trinity College, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:tri:wpaper:1904
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    File URL: http://www3.trincoll.edu/repec/WorkingPapers2019/WP19-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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