IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/1797.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series

Author

Listed:
  • Waheed, Muhammad
  • Alam, Tasneem
  • Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the unit root properties of eleven Pakistani macroeconomic series using annual data. Along with traditional unit root tests, we use the procedure developed by Zivot and Andrews to test the null of unit root against the break-stationary alternative. Conventional unit root tests indicate that all variable are non-stationary at the levels. Results from Zivot and Andrews test suggest that we can reject the null of unit root for CPI and WPI at 5 percent significance level while we fail to reject the unit root hypothesis for the remaining 9 series. At the same time, the Zivot and Andrews test identifies endogenously the point of the single most significant structural break in every time series examined. The results show that ten of the eleven series studied bear witness to the presence of a structural break during the period 1972 to 1976.

Suggested Citation

  • Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1797/1/MPRA_paper_1797.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Structural Breaks And Unit Roots In Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 421-437, December.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    9. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    10. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    12. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    13. Laurence Ball, 1993. "The Dynamics of High Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2020. "Public and Foreign Investment Spending in the Argentine Case. A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks, 1960-2015," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 49-76.
    2. Thurai Murugan Nathan, Venus Khim-Sen Liew, Wing-Keung Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Disaggregated Energy Consumption and Sectoral Outputs in Thailand: ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 39-51, March.
    3. Linda Ismaiel, 2017. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange Using Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(8), pages 790-798, August.
    4. Nyong, M. O. & Udah, E. B., 2012. "Industrial Time Series of Nigeria, 1970-2009: Evolution and Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    5. Arintoko & Nunik Kadarwati, 2009. "Is long-run monetary neutral? Evidence from Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(3), pages 197-214, April.
    6. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2017. "Do Remittances Promote Labor Productivity Growth in Mexico? An Empirical Analysis, 1970-2014," Working Papers 1702, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    7. Miguel Ramirez, 2013. "Is Foreign Direct Investment Beneficial for Mexico? A Cointegration Analysis, 1958-2010," Working Papers 1311, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    8. Masnun Mahi & Seuk Wai Phoong & Izlin Ismail & Che Ruhana Isa, 2019. "Energy–Finance–Growth Nexus in ASEAN-5 Countries: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu & Abiodun O. Folawewo, 2020. "Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2014. "Remittances and Economic Growth in Mexico: An Empirical Study with Structural Breaks, 1970-2010," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 351-373, June.
    11. Onur ÖZDEMİR, 2020. "Revisiting the Finance-Growth Nexus in Turkey: Bayer-Hanck Combined Cointegration Approach over the 1970-2016 Period," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(44).
    12. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    13. Arintoko, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through, import prices and inflation under structural breaks," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(1), pages 55-75, April.
    14. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Erol, Isil & Unal, Umut, 2015. "Role of Construction Sector in Economic Growth: New Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 68263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Miguel Ramirez, 2011. "Remittance Flows and Economic Growth in Mexico: A Single Break Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis, 1970-2009," Working Papers 1106, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2015. "Will disruptions in OPEC oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1312-1321.
    18. Joseph Ato Forson & Ponlapat Buracom & Theresa Yaaba Baah-Ennumh & Guojin Chen & Emmanuel Carsamer, 2015. "Corruption, EU Aid Inflows and Economic Growth in Ghana: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nyong, M. O. & Udah, E. B., 2012. "Industrial Time Series of Nigeria, 1970-2009: Evolution and Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    2. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Russo, Emanuele & Foster-McGregor, Neil & Verspagen, Bart, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," MERIT Working Papers 2019-026, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    6. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    7. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Are 19 Developed Countries' Real Per Capita GDP levels Non-stationary? A Revisit," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11.
    9. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:6:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2013. "Recursive adjustment, unit root tests and structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 62-82, January.
    13. Amit Sen, 2007. "On the Distribution of the Break-Date Estimator Implied by the Perron-Type Statistics When the Form of Break is Misspecified," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(6), pages 1-19.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marashdeh, Hazem & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Structural Changes in the Middle East Stock Markets: The case of Israel and Arab Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-22, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    17. Smyth, Russell & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Is Chinese provincial real GDP per capita nonstationary?: Evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24.
    18. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    19. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    20. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    21. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    22. Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010. "The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 244, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural break; unit root; pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.