IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/trb/wpaper/2000.07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The P-Star Model in Australia and New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Ramya Hewarathna

    (School of Economics, La Trobe University)

Abstract

This paper studies the usefulness of the P-star model in the analysis of the behaviour of prices in Australia and New Zealand. The P-star model is based on the quantity theory of money and the belief that the price level tends to move towards the equilibrium price level. The main contribution of this model is the use of the price gap - the difference between current price and the equilibrium price (P-star) - to forecast inflation. Hence, if the equilibrium price is greater than the current price, there is a tendency for the price level to rise. The equilibrium price in this approach is determined by potential output, the equilibrium velocity of money and the amount of money in the economy. In this study, potential output and equilibrium velocity, which are necessary variables in the construction of the equilibrium price level (P-star), are derived using the Hodrick and Prescott filter. The information contained in the price gap about Australian and New Zealand inflation is examined using an error correction model. In contrast to findings for the USA, the evidence does not strongly support the P-star model for Australian prices. However, results support the P-star model for the New Zealand case. Furthermore, according to the proponents of the P- star model the lagged value of the price gap must be significant in the model of inflation. But results of this study suggest that the contemporary value of the price gap is significant and it is difficult to provide a theoretical interpretation for this finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramya Hewarathna, 2000. "The P-Star Model in Australia and New Zealand," Working Papers 2000.07, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2000.07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/130862/2000.07.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2000.07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level," Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    3. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1993. "Money, Banking and Inflation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 236.
    4. Mr. Richard D Haas & Mr. Robert J. Corker, 1991. "Price Pressure Gaps: An Application of P* Using Korean Data," IMF Working Papers 1991/026, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Habibullah, Muzafar, 1999. "Using P-Star Model to Linking Money and Prices in A Financial Liberalised Developing Economy: The Case for Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 123-140.
    2. Chaubal Aditi, 2018. "P-star model for India: a nonlinear approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    5. J.M. Groeneveld & K.G. Koedijk & C.J.M. Kool, 1997. "Money, prices and the transition to EMU," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 481-504.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:20:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Imad Moosa & Basil Al-Nakeeb, 2020. "An augmented P-Star model of US inflation," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 555-566, December.
    8. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
    10. Abdul Qayyum & Faiz Bilquees, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 117-129.
    11. John A. Tatom, 1992. "The P-star model and Austrian prices," Working Papers 1992-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Johannes Groeneveld, 1998. "From the ERM with Love: Monetary Spillover Effects to Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 331-345, January.
    13. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary Spill-over Effects in the ERM: The Case of Austria, a Former Shadow Member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Linda S. Kole & Michael P. Leahy, 1991. "The usefulness of P* measures for Japan and Germany," International Finance Discussion Papers 414, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "P-STAR analysis in a converging economy: the case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-60, January.
    17. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1999. "Mercantilists and classicals: insights from doctrinal history," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 55-82.
    18. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    19. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
    20. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    21. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BEHAVIOUR ; MODELS ; PRICES;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2000.07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stephen Scoglio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sblatau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.