IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tor/tecipa/floyd-95-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncovered Interest Parity: A Further Reconsideration

Author

Listed:
  • John E. Floyd

Abstract

This paper reexamines the uncovered interest parity condition within the context of a structural view of real exchange rate determination that emphasizes the real exchange rate as the relative price of domestic in terms of foreign output. This structural interpretation complements rather than replaces the asset-market view of nominal exchange rate determination. Because structural shocks to the real exchange rate are unpredictable, forward discounts need not predict actual future nominal exchange rate movements with any reliability, except in cases where there are continuing long-term differences in countries' inflation rates. Once the integrated nature of the world capital market is taken into account, it turns out that governments can and probably do smooth price levels, nominal exchange rates and possibly also domestic/foreign interest rate differentials, but have no power to manipulate any of these variables independently of the others. As a result, they cannot bring about major movements in real exchange rates without destabilizing the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • John E. Floyd, 1995. "Uncovered Interest Parity: A Further Reconsideration," Working Papers floyd-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:floyd-95-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/UT-ECIPA-FLOYD-95-01.ps
    File Function: MainText
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:3:p:681-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    4. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    5. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-696, July.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1982. "Dynamics of a Floating Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 728-754, August.
    8. Stockman, Alan C. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1987. "Capital flows, investment, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 171-201, March.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1979. "Policies for employment, prices, and exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, January.
    10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    11. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-890, October.
    12. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    13. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040, Elsevier.
    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:255-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John E. Floyd, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Real Exchange Rate: Some Evidence," Working Papers floyd-98-02, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    4. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    7. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Machiko Nissanke, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility: The Empirical Study of Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Balvers, Ronald J. & H. Bergstrand, Jeffrey, 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoretical solutions and some empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 345-366, June.
    9. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1996. "Noise Trade Demand In Futures Markets," ACE OFOR Reports 14765, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    10. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    11. Po-Keng Cheng & Young Shin Kim, 2017. "Speculative bubbles and crashes： Fundamentalists and positive‐feedback trading," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1381370-138, January.
    12. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    13. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    14. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
    15. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "The equilibrium to exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Mar), pages 12-30.
    17. Linn, Scott C. & Stanhouse, Bryan E., 1997. "The economic advantage of least squares learning in a risky asset market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 303-319.
    18. Jia, Xue, 2016. "On the role of information disclosures in capital markets," Other publications TiSEM 9bacfbaa-2162-49fe-92e6-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian & Bernard Yeung, 2016. "Speculative Investors and Transactions Tax: Evidence from the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(11), pages 3254-3270, November.
    20. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    21. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:floyd-95-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePEc Maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.