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Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics

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  • Masanao Aoki

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Hiroshi Yoshikawa

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Using a simple stochastic growth model, this paper emonstrates that the coefficient of variation of aggregate output or GDP does not necessarily go to zero even if the number of sectors or economic agents goes to infinity. This phenomenon known as non-self-averaging implies that even if the number of economic agents is large, dispersion can remain significant, and, therefore, that we can not legitimately focus on the means of aggregate variables. It, in turn, means that the standard microeconomic foundations based on the representative agent has little value for they are expected to provide us with dynamics of the means of aggregate variables. The paper also shows that non-self-averaging emerges in some representative urn models. It suggests that non-self-averaging is not pathological but quite generic. Thus, contrary to the main stream view, micro-founded macroeconomics such as a dynamic general equilibrium model does not provide solid micro foundations.

Suggested Citation

  • Masanao Aoki & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2007. "Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-493, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Masanao Aoki, 2006. "Thermodynamic Limits of Macroeconomic or Financial Models: One-and Two-Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Models (Forthcoming in "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control", 2007. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-083, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
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    2. Wright, Ian, 2009. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-27.
    3. Song, Edward, 2014. "Economic Science: From the Ideal Gas Law Economy to Piketty and Beyond," MPRA Paper 57391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yuji Aruka & Eizo Akiyama, 2009. "Non-self-averaging of a two-person game with only positive spillover: a new formulation of Avatamsaka’s dilemma," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 135-161, November.

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