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Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics

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  • AOKI Masanao
  • YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi

Abstract

Using a simple stochastic growth model, this paper demonstrates that the coefficient of variation of aggregate output or GDP does not necessarily go to zero even if the number of sectors or economic agents goes to infinity. This phenomenon known as non-self-averaging implies that even if the number of economic agents is large, dispersion can remain significant, and, therefore, that we can not legitimately focus on the means of aggregate variables. It, in turn, means that the standard microeconomic foundations based on the representative agent has little value for they are expected to provide us with dynamics of the means of aggregate variables. The paper also shows that non-self-averaging emerges in some representative urn models. It suggests that non-self-averaging is not pathological but quite generic. Thus, contrary to the main stream view, micro-founded macroeconomics such as a dynamic general equilibrium model does not provide solid micro foundations.

Suggested Citation

  • AOKI Masanao & YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi, 2007. "Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics," Discussion papers 07057, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:07057
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    Cited by:

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    2. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    3. Sorin Solomon & Nataša Golo, 2015. "Microeconomic structure determines macroeconomic dynamics: Aoki defeats the representative agent," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 5-30, April.
    4. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    5. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-11.
    6. Wright, Ian, 2009. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-27.
    7. Aoki, Masanao & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 2009. "The nature of equilibrium in macroeconomics: A critique of equilibrium search theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-9.
    8. Yuji Aruka & Eizo Akiyama, 2009. "Non-self-averaging of a two-person game with only positive spillover: a new formulation of Avatamsaka’s dilemma," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 135-161, November.
    9. U. Garibaldi & P. Viarengo, 2012. "Exchangeability and non-self-averaging," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 7(2), pages 181-195, October.
    10. Masanao Aoki, 2008. "Dispersion of growth paths of macroeconomic models in thermodynamic limits: two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet models," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 3-13, June.
    11. Song, Edward, 2014. "Economic Science: From the Ideal Gas Law Economy to Piketty and Beyond," MPRA Paper 57391, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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