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Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors

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  • Rothfelder, Mario

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Boldea, Otilia

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

Using 2SLS estimation, we propose two tests for a threshold in models with endogenous regressors: a sup LR test and a sup Wald test. Here, the 2SLS estimation is not conventional because it uses additional information about the first-stage being linear or not. Because of this additional information, our tests can be more accurate than the threshold test in Caner and Hansen (2004) which is based on conventional GMM estimation. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the two tests for a linear and for a threshold reduced form. In both cases, the distributions are non-pivotal, and we propose obtaining critical values via a fixed regressor wild bootstrap. Our simulations show that in small samples, the GMM test of Caner and Hansen (2004) can be severely oversized under heteroskedasticity, while the 2SLS tests we propose are much closer to their nominal size. We use our tests to investigate the common claim that the government spending multiplier is larger close to the zero lower bound, and therefore that the governments should have spent more in the recent crisis. We find no empirical support for this claim.
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Suggested Citation

  • Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Other publications TiSEM 40ca581a-e228-49ae-911f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:40ca581a-e228-49ae-911f-ea707ff4209c
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    Cited by:

    1. Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Discussion Paper 2016-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Panas, 2021. "Investigating government spending multiplier for the US economy: empirical evidence using a triple lasso approach," Working Papers 292, Bank of Greece.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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