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Probability Judgements in Multi-Stage Problems : Experimental Evidence of Systematic Biases

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  • Gneezy, U.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

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  • Gneezy, U., 1996. "Probability Judgements in Multi-Stage Problems : Experimental Evidence of Systematic Biases," Discussion Paper 1996-01, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:e4424aaf-139b-44a5-8561-4cd08baa0a9a
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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    5. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-1668, December.
    6. Camerer, Colin F, 1987. "Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 981-997, December.
    7. Werner F. M. De Bondt & Richard H. Thaler, 1994. "Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker, 2010. "Hidden Skewness," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1043, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Gneezy, U. & Das, J.W.M., 1996. "Experimental Investigation of Percieved Risk in Random Walk Processes," Discussion Paper 1996-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Eva D. Regnier & Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2019. "The Hurricane Decision Simulator: A Tool for Marine Forces in New Orleans to Practice Operations Management in Advance of a Hurricane," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 103-120, January.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:2:p:237-262 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Grazzini, J., 2011. "Experimental Based, Agent Based Stock Market," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Olivier L’Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 35-89.
    7. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2018. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding Under Random Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1693-1706, April.
    8. Klaus Abbink & Matthew Ellman, 2004. "The donor problem," Economics Working Papers 796, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2005.
    9. Kwanho Suk & Jieun Koo, 2022. "Preference for playing order in games with and without replacement: Motivational biases and probability misestimations," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 17(2), pages 237-262, March.
    10. Jakob Grazzini, 2013. "Information dissemination in an experimentally based agent-based stock market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 179-209, April.
    11. Harri, Ardian & Zhllima, Edvin & Imami, Drini & Coatney, Kalyn T., 2020. "Effects of subject pool culture and institutional environment on corruption: Experimental evidence from Albania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    12. Joseph Johnson & Jerome Busemeyer, 2001. "Multiple-Stage Decision-Making: The Effect of Planning Horizon Length on Dynamic Consistency," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 217-246, December.
    13. Kim Kaivanto & Eike Kroll, 2014. "Alternation bias and reduction in St. Petersburg gambles," Working Papers 65600286, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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