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Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer

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Listed:
  • Palomino, F.A.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Rigotti, L.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Rustichini, A.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Sports provide a natural experiment on individual choices in games with high stakes. We study soccer with a game-theoretic model of a match, and then evaluate the ability of this model to explain actual behavior with data from 2885 matches among professional teams. In our model, the strategy of a team depends on the current state of the game. When the game is tied, both teams attack. A losing team always attacks, while its winning opponent attacks early in the game, but it starts defending as the end of the match nears. We find that teams' skills, current score, and home field advantage are significant explanatory variables of the probability of scoring. We also find that a team which falls behind is relatively more likely to score. A team which is ahead, on the other hand, uses a conservative strategy very early in the match. These results support the main conclusions of our model. They indicate that soccer teams behave consistently with rationality and equilibrium. However, there is significant evidence that emotional factors are roughly as important as rational ones in determining the game's outcome, and they affect the strategic decisions of teams.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Discussion Paper 1998-129, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:55db1805-5c26-402f-9c3a-ea1e341ee311
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    1. Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Other publications TiSEM 55db1805-5c26-402f-9c3a-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Discussion Paper 1998-129, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Stefan Szymanski & Ron Smith, 2010. "The English Football Industry: Profit, Performance and Industrial Structure," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 1998. "On the Independence and Identical Distribution of Points in Tennis," Other publications TiSEM 395a6222-6318-49b5-a42c-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kirchsteiger, G. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 2000. "Your Morals are Your Moods," Discussion Paper 2000-122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Carrillo, Juan & Brocas, Isabelle, 2002. "Do the 'Three-Point Victory' and 'Golden Goal' Rules Make Soccer More Exciting? A Theoretical Analysis of a Simple Game," CEPR Discussion Papers 3266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Other publications TiSEM 55db1805-5c26-402f-9c3a-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Peter-J. Jost, 2021. "“The ball is round, the game lasts 90 minutes, everything else is pure theoryâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 27-74, January.
    5. Anurag N. Banerjee & Johan F. M. Swinnen & Alfons Weersink, 2007. "Skating on thin ice: rule changes and team strategies in the NHL," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 493-514, May.
    6. Juan D. Carrillo, 2007. "Penalty Shoot-Outs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(5), pages 505-518, October.
    7. Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Tohmé & Fernando Delbianco & Alejandro Neme, 2021. "Effort of rugby teams according to the bonus point system: a theoretical and empirical analysis," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 50(2), pages 447-474, June.
    8. Banerjee, A.N. & Swinnen, J.F.M., 2002. "Does a sudden death liven up the game? Rules, incentives, and strategy in football," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0214, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Franz Wirl & Simon Sagmeister, 2008. "Changing of the guards: New coaches in Austria’s premier football league," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 267-278, July.
    10. Carrillo, Juan, 2006. "Penalty Shoot-Outs: Before or After Extra Time?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. William Chan & Pascal Courty & Li Hao, 2009. "Suspense: Dynamic Incentives in Sports Contests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 24-46, January.
    12. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Swinnen, Johan & Weersink, Alfons, 2004. "Skating on thin ice: rule changes and team strategies in the NHL," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0401, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Kirchsteiger, G. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 2000. "Your Morals are Your Moods," Other publications TiSEM 01413830-fe0d-485d-94b1-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Ricardo Manuel Santos, 2014. "Optimal Soccer Strategies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 183-200, January.
    15. Palomino, F.A. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, Strategy and Passion : An Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Discussion Paper 1998-129, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2010. "Optimizing strategic behaviour in a dynamic setting in professional team sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 661-669, September.
    17. Paramahansa Pramanik, 2025. "Stubbornness as Control in Professional Soccer Games: A BPPSDE Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-37, January.
    18. Gauriot, Romain & Page, Lionel, 2018. "Psychological momentum in contests: The case of scoring before half-time in football," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 137-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero sum games; motivation; rationality; natural experiments; sports; soccer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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