Dropout from secondary education: All's well that begins well

Despite the increased attention to students leaving secondary education without a diploma, numerous students dropout yearly. This paper makes a distinction between the 'individual perspective' and the 'institutional perspective' of dropping out. The individual perspective considers the probability of an individual student to drop out. It is explored by multinominal logit models, with and without accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. We observe that particularly motivation of the student and interest in schooling of his/her parents are crucial predictors of the individual dropout decision. The institutional perspective focusses on contextual factors and is examined by ordered logit models, both with and without accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, we discuss the influence of the first year of secondary education by analysing the large di¤erences in the number of dropouts in Dutch rst year classes. We observe that, more than motivation, conditions in the rst year of secondary education are crucial in shaping the dropping out decision.