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An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing

Author

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  • Matthias Weber

    (Bank of Lithuania, and Vilnius University, Lithuania)

  • John Duffy

    (University of California, Irvine, United States)

  • Arthur Schram

    (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

An important feature of bond markets is the relationship between initial public offering prices and the probability of the issuer defaulting. First, this probability affects the bond prices. Second, IPO prices determine the default probability. Though market equilibrium has been shown to predict well for other assets, it is a priori unclear whether markets will yield competitive prices when such interaction with the default probability occurs. We develop a flexible bond market model that is easily implemented in the laboratory and examine how subjects price bonds. We find that subjects learn to price bonds well after only a few repetitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2016. "An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-059/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160059
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Matthias Weber & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Experience Does Not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4450-4485.
    2. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril, 2022. "Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-making," Discussion Papers 2022/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
    4. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2024. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8772-8790, December.
    5. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2019. "Experimental Asset Markets with An Indefinite Horizon," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-15, CIRANO.
    6. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2019. "Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1905, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Weber, Matthias & Duffy, John & Schram, Arthur, 2024. "Regulation and the demand for credit default swaps in experimental bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Caselli, Stefano & Cillo, Alessandra & Masciandaro, Donato & Rabitti, Giovanni, 2021. "Money, privacy, anonymity: What do experiments tell us?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Lehmann, Timo & Weber, Matthias, 2021. "IPO Underpricing and Aftermarket Price Accuracy: Auctions vs. Bookbuilding in Japan," SocArXiv sa385, Center for Open Science.
    11. Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Behavioral Optimal Taxation: The Case of Aspirations," SocArXiv fpnw6, Center for Open Science.
    12. Sascha Füllbrunn & Tibor Neugebauer & Andreas Nicklisch, 2020. "Underpricing of initial public offerings in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1002-1029, December.
    13. Salvi, Antonio & Giakoumelou, Anastasia & Bertinetti, Giorgio Stefano, 2021. "CSR in the bond market: Pricing stakeholders and the moderating role of the institutional context," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Weber, Matthias, 2022. "From Individual Human Decisions to Economic and Financial Policies," SocArXiv 5ju7z, Center for Open Science.
    15. Te Bao & Edward Halim & Charles N. Noussair & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2021. "Managerial incentives and stock price dynamics: an experimental approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 617-648, June.
    16. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    17. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril, 2023. "Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-Making," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Kopányi-Peuker, Anita & Weber, Matthias, 2024. "The role of the end time in experimental asset markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Matthias Weber, 2021. "Behavioral optimal taxation: Aspirations," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 5(1), pages 19-26, Septembre.
    20. Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.
    21. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    22. Anna Bayona & Oana Peia & Razvan Vlahu, 2023. "Credit Ratings and Investments," Working Papers 776, DNB.
    23. Timo Lehmann & Matthias Weber, 2023. "Auctions versus bookbuilding: The effects of IPO regulation in Japan," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 117-141, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond markets; experimental finance; experimental markets; asset pricing; learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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