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Business Cycle Fluctuations and Private Savings in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yvonne Adema

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Lorenzo Pozzi

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'European Economic Review' . Vol. 79, pages 214-233. We investigate the cyclicality of the private savings to GDP ratio for a panel of 19 OECD countries over the period 1971-2009. We find robust evidence that the private savings ratio is countercyclical. Three theories unambiguously predict a higher private savings ratio during recessions: a Ricardian offset effect, the presence of credit constraints, and precautionary savings. We find evidence only for the latter theory. Our estimations take into account a large number of econometric complications: persistence in the savings ratio, endogeneity of the regressors, cross-country parameter heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, stationarity issues, omitted variables, and instrument strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvonne Adema & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2012. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and Private Savings in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-144/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Savings; Business Cycles; Ricardian offset; Credit Constraints; Precautionary Savings; Dynamic Panel; Cross-Sectional Dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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