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Bolivian Social Investment Fund Analysis of Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Menno Pradhan

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Laura Rawlings

    (The World Bank)

  • Geert Ridder

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the World Bank Economic Review (1998). Volume 12, issue 3, pages 457-483. On the basis of the baseline data collected for the evaluation of the Bolivian Social Investment Fund (SIF) this paper assesses (1) the benefit incidence of the SIF and (2) the quality of the evaluation design. We find that the benefits in education are most equally distributed over the population, the investments in health and sanitation favor those relatively well off. For the education component of the SIF, control groups of schools which will not receive benefits have been included in the survey. In one region theseschools where selected on the basis of matched comparison on the basis of observed characteristics, in the other region by means of randomization. We compare control and treatment groups and conclude there is a systematic bias in favor of treatment schools in the first region. We propose to use instrumental variables to control for the non-random selection. With the pre-intervention data we can test whether an instrument is valid. We find that among several candidates the number of NGOs (non governmental organizations)in the community is a valid instrument. Next, we investigate the possible loss of efficiency in the estimate of the impact due to the non experimental control group design.

Suggested Citation

  • Menno Pradhan & Laura Rawlings & Geert Ridder, 1997. "Bolivian Social Investment Fund Analysis of Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-024/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:19970024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    5. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-620, September.
    6. Joshua Angrist, 1989. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," Working Papers 631, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. Jimenez, Emmanuel, 1995. "Human and physical infrastructure: Public investment and pricing policies in developing countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 43, pages 2773-2843, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouillon, César P. & Tejerina, Luis, 2006. "Do We Know What Works?: A Systematic Review of Impact Evaluations of Social Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean. Latest version," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4297, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. repec:idb:brikps:340 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. César P. Bouillon & Luis Tejerina, 2006. "Do We Know What Works?: A Systematic Review of Impact Evaluations of Social Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 80443, Inter-American Development Bank.

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