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Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage

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  • WRIGHT, JOHN R.

Abstract

This article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are rewarded when unemployment is low and punished when it is high. Using county-level data on unemployment and election returns for 175 midterm gubernatorial elections and 4 presidential elections from 1994 to 2010, the analysis finds that unemployment and the Democratic vote for president and governor move together. Other things being equal, higher unemployment increases the vote shares of Democratic candidates. The effect is greatest when Republicans are the incumbent party, but Democrats benefit from unemployment even when they are in control. The explanation for these findings is that unemployment is a partisan issue for voters, not a valence issue, and that the Democratic Party “owns” unemployment. When unemployment is high or rising, Democratic candidates can successfully convince voters that they are the party best able to solve the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, John R., 2012. "Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 685-702, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:106:y:2012:i:04:p:685-702_00
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    1. Maxime Menuet & Hugo Oriola & Patrick Villieu, 2024. "Do conservative central bankers weaken the chances of conservative politicians?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 62(4), pages 681-738, June.
    2. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6182, CESifo.
    3. Yi Che & Yi Lu & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Zhigang Tao, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bennett, Daniel L. & Long, Jason T., 2019. "Is it the economic policy, stupid? Economic policy, political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 118-137.
    5. Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2015. "Attribution Error In Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 258-275, January.
    6. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2020. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4011-4045.
    8. Resce, Giuliano & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2023. "Taste of home: Birth town bias in Geographical Indications," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23089, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    9. Marina Di Giacomo & Wolfgang Nagl & Philipp Steinbrunner, 2022. "Trump Digs Votes - The Effect of Trump's Coal Campaign on the Presidential Ballot in 2016," CESifo Working Paper Series 9817, CESifo.
    10. Peter Spáč, 2021. "Pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 479-501, September.
    11. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. John Kuk & Deborah Seligsohn & Jiakun Jack Zhang, 2022. "The partisan divide in U.S. congressional communications after the China shock," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 494-526, July.
    13. Rebecca Lessem & Sarah Niebler & Carly Urban, 2023. "Do house prices affect campaign contributions?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 629-660, July.
    14. Ferrante, Livio & Reito, Francesco & Spagano, Salvatore & Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2021. "Shall we follow the money? Anti-mafia policies and electoral competition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1110-1130.
    15. Manuel Hidalgo-Pérez & José Luis Ferreira & Carmen Rubio-Castaño, 2018. "The Democrat-Republican growth gap paradox," Working Papers 18.10, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    16. Guy Tchuente & Johnson Kakeu & John Nana Francois, 2021. "The Forest Behind the Tree: Heterogeneity in How US Governor's Party Affects Black Workers," Papers 2110.00582, arXiv.org.
    17. Arroyo Abad, Leticia & Maurer, Noel, 2021. "Do Pandemics Shape Elections? Retrospective voting in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 15678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    19. Karatekin, Canan & Marshall Mason, Susan & Latner, Michael & Gresham, Bria & Corcoran, Frederique & Hing, Anna & Barnes, Andrew J., 2023. "Is fair representation good for children? effects of electoral partisan bias in state legislatures on policies affecting children's health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    20. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.

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