IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/0507.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Monetary Disequilibrium Model for Turkey : Investigation of a Disinflationary Fiscal Rule and its Implications on Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • K. Azim Ozdemir

Abstract

In this paper we present a monetary disequilibrium model based on Khan and Knight�s framework, estimate it for the Turkish economy and run several simulation experiments. The simulation results show the importance of fiscal discipline to achieve the objectives such as to sustain the disinflation process and to reduce the high budget deficit in Turkey. In the long term perspective, however, we conclude that tight fiscal policies should be mixed with either monetary or debt management policy to avoid the excessive monetary contraction as the real demand for broad money increases with the disinflation process.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Azim Ozdemir, 2005. "A Monetary Disequilibrium Model for Turkey : Investigation of a Disinflationary Fiscal Rule and its Implications on Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0507, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2005/05-07
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ozatay, Fatih, 2000. "A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Mohsin S. Khan & Malcolm D. Knight, 1981. "Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries: A Formal Framework (Programmes de stabilisation dans les pays en développement: cadre formel) (Programas de estabilización en los países en desarroll," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(1), pages 1-53, March.
    3. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
    4. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    5. Blejer, Mario I, 1977. "The Short-Run Dynamics of Prices and the Balance of Payments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 419-428, June.
    6. Leslie Lipschitz, 1984. "Domestic Credit and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Some Policy Experiments with Korean Data (Crédit intérieur et taux de change dans les pays en développement: quelques expériences en mat," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(4), pages 595-635, December.
    7. Sundararajan, V., 1986. "Exchange rate versus credit policy : Analysis with a monetary model of trade and inflation in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-105.
    8. Ozatay, Fatih, 1997. "Sustainability of fiscal deficits, monetary policy, and inflation stabilization: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 661-681, December.
    9. Blejer, Mario I & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1981. "A Monetary Approach to the Crawling-Peg System: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(1), pages 132-151, February.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1990. "Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange: A Formal Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 560-592, September.
    11. Erdal Ozmen, 1998. "Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 545-552.
    12. Sassanpour, Cyrus & Sheen, Jeffrey, 1984. "An empirical analysis of the effect of monetary disequilibria in open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 127-163, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Günçavdi, Öner & Küçük, Ali Erhan, 2013. "Investment expenditure and capital accumulation in an inflationary environment: The case of Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 554-571.
    2. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    3. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gündoğdu, 2012. "Structural Macro econometric Model of Turkey; Impact of Structural Characteristics on Macroeconomic Indicators," EcoMod2012 3886, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Eu Chye, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Inflation and Economic Growth in a Successful Open Developing Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 2(01), pages 1-11.
    2. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.
    4. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    7. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999," Working Papers 0209, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Mar 2002.
    8. Musa Sannoh & Momodou Mustapha Fanneh, 2022. "Does the Mode of Financing the Budget deficit Matter for Inflation? The Case of the Gambia," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 31(1), pages 362-370, May.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Abdul Jalil & Hafsa Hina (ed.), 2024. "Monetary Policy: Crafting a Path for Pakistans Economic Stability," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2024:03.
    11. Serdar Kurt & Canan Gunes & Verda Davasligil, 2012. "The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    13. Ignacio Lozano, 2009. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian case," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 65-95, January-J.
    14. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Modeling base money demand and inflation for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    16. repec:pra:mprapa:61939 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ozatay, Fatih, 2000. "A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    18. SOYDAN Aylin, 2010. "Financial Liberalisation, Currency Substitution and Seigniorage: Evidence from Turkey," EcoMod2003 330700138, EcoMod.
    19. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    20. Ameyaw, Samuel Donyina, 2004. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Trade and Inflation in Ghana," Economic Research Papers 269590, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    21. Levent Korap, 2009. "Parasal Buyume ve Tuketici Enflasyonu Degisim Orani Arasindaki Nedensellik Iliskisi Uzerine Bir Deneme: Turkiye Ornegi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 56-74, May.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    24. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.