IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1221.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Makroekonomik Gostergelerin Doviz Kurlari Uzerine Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Pinar Ozlu
  • Deren Unalmis

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismada gecmise donuk olarak derlenen Reuters beklenti anketi verileri ve gercek zamanli veriler kullanilarak Turkiye’de makroekonomik degiskenlere iliskin surprizlerin doviz kurlari uzerindeki etkileri 5 Ocak 2004- 18 Temmuz 2012 donemi icin incelenmistir. Bulgular, Turk lirasinin degerinin cari acik ve para politikasi surprizlerine tepki verdigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, we use historical Reuters surveys and real-time data in order to investigate the effect of economic fundamentals on exchange rates in Turkey for the period : January 5, 2004- July 18, 2012. The empirical evidence suggests that current account and monetary policy surprises in Turkey have been effective on daily changes in the value of the Turkish lira.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Makroekonomik Gostergelerin Doviz Kurlari Uzerine Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1221, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1221
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4b9d7c23-6940-4225-9bd4-01071316ff03/EN1221eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4b9d7c23-6940-4225-9bd4-01071316ff03-m3fw54W
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    3. Selva DEMİRALP & Kamil YILMAZ, 2010. "Para politikası beklentilerinin sermaye piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(296), pages 9-31.
    4. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
    5. Duran, Murat & Özcan, Gülserim & Özlü, Pınar & Ünalmış, Deren, 2012. "Measuring the impact of monetary policy on asset prices in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-31.
    6. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
    8. Zelal AKTAŞ & Harun ALP & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Mehtap KESRİYELİ & Musa ORAK, 2009. "Türkiye'de para politikasının aktarımı: Para politikasının mali piyasalara etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(278), pages 9-24.
    9. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    2. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Casper G. de Vries, 2006. "Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-086/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
    6. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    8. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Panthaki, Freyan, 2006. "What defines `news' in foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 168-198, February.
    9. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2022. "Currency volatility and global technological innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Tseke Maserumule & Paul Alagidede, 2017. "Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Foreign Exchange Volatility: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 405-429, September.
    11. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid & Hajra Ihsan, 2022. "The news effects on exchange rate returns and volatility: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 745-769, January.
    12. Hambuckers, J. & Ulm, M., 2023. "On the role of interest rate differentials in the dynamic asymmetry of exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2019. "Central bank announcements and realized volatility of stock markets in G7 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 117-135.
    14. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    15. Show-Lin Chen & Nen-Jing Chen & Rwei-Ju Chuang, 2014. "An empirical study on technical analysis: GARCH (1, 1) model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 785-801, April.
    16. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2016. "Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re-Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 14-28, March.
    17. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    18. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bush, Georgia & López Noria, Gabriela, 2021. "Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 704-722.
    20. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.