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Para politikası beklentilerinin sermaye piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Selva DEMİRALP

    (Koç Üniversitesi)

  • Kamil YILMAZ

    (Koç Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada TCMB para politikası ile ilgili beklentilerin sermaye piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. Etkin piyasa hipotezinin (“efficient market hypothesis”) geçerli olması durumunda merkez bankası tarafından yapılan faiz kararı açıklamasını takiben sermaye piyasalarının sadece beklenmeyen politika kararlarına tepki vermesi beklenir. Çünkü beklenen politika kararına toplantı öncesinde gerekli tepkinin verilmiş olması gerekir. 2002-2009 tarihleri arasında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası beklenti anketlerinden para politikası beklentilerini ölçmek sureti ile yaptığımız analizde elde ettiğimiz sonuçlar gösterge faiz oranının ağırlıklı olarak etkin piyasa hipotezi doğrultusunda değiştiğini, hisse senedi piyasalarında ise belli zaman aralıklarında etkin piyasa hipotezinin çalıştığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçların belli bir anket tipine hassasiyet gösterip göstermediği 2005 sonrası dönem için incelenmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Selva DEMİRALP & Kamil YILMAZ, 2010. "Para politikası beklentilerinin sermaye piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 25(296), pages 9-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:25:y:2010:i:296:p:9-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Makroekonomik Gostergelerin Doviz Kurlari Uzerine Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1221, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pýnar Özlü, 2011. "Monetary policy communication under inflation targeting: Do words speak louder than actions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1128, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Demiralp, Selva & Kara, Hakan & Özlü, Pınar, 2012. "Monetary policy communication in Turkey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 540-556.
    5. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Tamgac, Unay, 2021. "Emerging market exchange rates during quantitative tapering: The effect of US and domestic news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Para politikası; Beklenti anketi; Sermaye piyasası;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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