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Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Fredriksen
  • Kim Massey Heide
  • Erling Holmøy
  • Ingeborg Foldøy Solli

    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

Ageing combined with generous welfare state schemes makes the present fiscal policy in Norway unsustainable, despite large government petroleum revenues. We estimate to what extent two suggested reforms of the public pension system improve fiscal sustainability and stimulate employment, two main objectives of the reforms. To this end we apply two large models iteratively: 1) a detailed dynamic micro simulation model to estimate government pension expenditures; 2) a large CGE-model to estimate general equilibrium effects on all tax bases and employment, i.e. macroeconomic effects. We find that the reform proposals have much larger effects than typically found for reforms of the tax and trade policy. Whereas maintaining the present system implies that the payroll tax rate must be increased from about 13 percent today to 25 percent in 2050, both proposals imply that taxes can be reduced from the present level in all years up to 2050. Most of this reduction can be attributed to higher employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:417
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    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp417.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    2. K. Mc Morrow & W. Röger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 162, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    4. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    5. Øystein Thøgersen, 2001. "Reforming social security: assessing the effects of alternative funding strategies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1531-1540.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli & Birger Strøm, 2006. "A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position," Discussion Papers 464, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Kyrre Stensnes & Nils Martin Stølen, 2007. "Pension Reform in Norway. Microsimulating effects on government expenditures, labour supply incentives and benefit distribution," Discussion Papers 524, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Dennis Fredriksen & Nils Martin Stølen, 2005. "Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden," Discussion Papers 418, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population ageing; Fiscal sustainability; Pension reforms; Computable general equilibrium model; Dynamic micro simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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