IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2023-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A non-Normal framework for price discovery: The independent component based information shares measure

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastiano Michele Zema
  • Francesco Cordoni

Abstract

We propose a new measure of price discovery, which we will refer to as the Independent Component based Information Share (IC-IS). This measure constitutes a variant of the widespread Information Share, with the main difference being it does not suffer the same identification issues. Under the assumptions of non-normality of the shocks, a rather general theoretical framework leading to the definition of the IC-IS and its estimation via a pseudo maximum likelihood (PML) approach is illustrated. After testing the robustness of the measure in a Montecarlo simulation environment, we illustrate two separate empirical analyses encompassing different price discovery applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastiano Michele Zema & Francesco Cordoni, 2023. "A non-Normal framework for price discovery: The independent component based information shares measure," LEM Papers Series 2023/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2023-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Pagnottoni & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery on Bitcoin markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 139-161, November.
    2. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Statistical inference for independent component analysis: Application to structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 111-126.
    3. Frank De Jong & Peter C. Schotman, 2010. "Price Discovery in Fragmented Markets," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, Winter.
    4. Kwangwon Ahn & Yingyao Bi & Sungbin Sohn, 2019. "Price discovery among SSE 50 Index‐based spot, futures, and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 238-259, February.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Dobrev, Dobrislav & Schaumburg, Ernst, 2012. "Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbor truncation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 75-93.
    6. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Price discovery in equity and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-46.
    7. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    8. Pauline Shum & Walid Hejazi & Edgar Haryanto & Arthur Rodier, 2016. "Intraday Share Price Volatility and Leveraged ETF Rebalancing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2379-2409.
    9. Gustavo F. Dias & Marcelo Fernandes & Cristina M. Scherrer, 2021. "Price Discovery in a Continuous-Time Setting [Price Discovery and Common Factor Models]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 985-1008.
    10. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    11. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela & Tosi, Alessandra, 2021. "Time-varying price discovery in sovereign credit markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
    14. Giuseppe Buccheri & Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2021. "Comment on: Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 439-451.
    15. Putniņš, Tālis J., 2013. "What do price discovery metrics really measure?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 68-83.
    16. Yan, Bingcheng & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "A structural analysis of price discovery measures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
    17. Tim Leung & Matthew Lorig & Andrea Pascucci, 2017. "Leveraged Etf Implied Volatilities From Etf Dynamics," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 1035-1068, October.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Lin, Chu-Bin & Chou, Robin K. & Wang, George H.K., 2018. "Investor sentiment and price discovery: Evidence from the pricing dynamics between the futures and spot markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-31.
    20. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha, 2009. "A new information share measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 377-395, April.
    21. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2016. "Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 1-18.
    23. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 803-817, July.
    24. Jonathan Brogaard & Terrence Hendershott & Ryan Riordan, 2019. "Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from Limit Orders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1621-1658, August.
    25. James Brugler & Carole Comerton-Forde, 2021. "Comment on: Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 431-438.
    26. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Directed acyclic graph based information shares for price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    27. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 563-579, December.
    28. Eric Ghysels, 2021. "Comment on: Price Discovery in High Resolution and the Analysis of Mixed Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 459-464.
    29. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Rejoinder on: Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 465-471.
    30. Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2020. "Identification and Estimation in Non-Fundamental Structural VARMA Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1915-1953.
    31. Frank de Jong, 2021. "Comment on: Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 452-458.
    32. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.
    33. Grammig, Joachim & Peter, Franziska J., 2013. "Telltale Tails: A New Approach to Estimating Unique Market Information Shares," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 459-488, April.
    34. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    35. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
    36. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    37. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    38. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    39. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    40. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    41. Moneta, Alessio & Pallante, Gianluca, 2022. "Identification of Structural VAR Models via Independent Component Analysis: A Performance Evaluation Study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Directed acyclic graph based information shares for price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2020. "Directed Acyclic Graph based Information Shares for Price Discovery," LEM Papers Series 2020/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    4. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
    5. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    6. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Yang Hu & Yang (Greg) Hou & Les Oxley, 2019. "Spot and Futures Prices of Bitcoin: Causality, Cointegration and Price Discovery from a Time-Varying Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 19/13, University of Waikato.
    8. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Paolo Pagnottoni & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery on Bitcoin markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 139-161, November.
    10. Alexander, Carol & Heck, Daniel F., 2020. "Price discovery in Bitcoin: The impact of unregulated markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 803-817, July.
    12. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Quantile information share under Markov regime‐switching," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 493-513, April.
    13. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    14. Dimpfl, Thomas & Schweikert, Karsten, 2023. "Information shares for markets with partially overlapping trading hours," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.
    16. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Stefan, Martin & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2020. "Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets: Do speculators contribute?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    18. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Shihao Wang & Peiran Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2235-2247, December.
    19. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2023/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.