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Financial stability policies and bank lending: quasi-experimental evidence from Federal Reserve interventions in 1920-21

Author

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  • Rieder, Kilian

Abstract

I estimate the comparative causal effects of monetary policy \leaning against the wind" (LAW) and macroprudential policy on bank-level lending and leverage by drawing on a single natural experiment. In 1920, when U.S. monetary policy was still decentralized, four Federal Reserve Banks implemented a conventional rate hike to address financial stability concerns. Another four Reserve Banks resorted to macroprudential policy with the same goal. Using sharp geographic regression discontinuities, I exploit the resulting policy borders with the remaining four Federal Reserve districts which did not change policy stance. Macroprudential policy caused both bank-level lending and leverage to fall significantly (by 11%-14%), whereas LAW had only weak and, in some areas, even perverse effects on these bank-level outcomes. I show that the macroprudential tool reined in over-extended banks more effectively than LAW because it allowed Federal Reserve Banks to use price discrimination when lending to highly leveraged counterparties. The perverse effects of the rate hike in some areas ensued because LAW lifted a pre-existing credit supply friction by incentivizing regulatory arbitrage. My results highlight the importance of context, design and financial infrastructure for the effectiveness of financial stability policies. JEL Classification: E44, E51, E52, E58, G21, N12, N22

Suggested Citation

  • Rieder, Kilian, 2020. "Financial stability policies and bank lending: quasi-experimental evidence from Federal Reserve interventions in 1920-21," ESRB Working Paper Series 113, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:2020113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519999 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kris James Mitchener & Gary Richardson, 2013. "Shadowy Banks and Financial Contagion during the Great Depression: A Retrospective on Friedman and Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 73-78, May.
    3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    4. Kris James Mitchener & Gary Richardson, 2019. "Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 465-507.
    5. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending; credit boom; Federal Reserve System; financial crisis; leaning against the wind; leverage; macroprudential policy; monetary policy; progressive discount rate; recession of 1920/1921;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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