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Insurers as asset managers and systemic risk

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  • Ellul, Andrew
  • Jotikasthira, Chotibhak
  • Kartasheva, Anastasia
  • Lundblad, Christian T.
  • Wagner, Wolf

Abstract

Financial intermediaries often provide guarantees that resemble out-of-the-money put options, exposing them to tail risk. Using the U.S. life insurance industry as a laboratory, we present a model in which variable annuity (VA) guarantees and associated hedging operate within the regulatory capital framework to create incentives for insurers to overweight illiquid bonds (“reach-for-yield”). We then calibrate the model to insurer-level data, and show that the VA-writing insurers’ collective allocation to illiquid bonds exacerbates system-wide fire sales in the event of negative asset shocks, plausibly erasing up to 20-70% of insurers’ equity capital. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G18, G22

Suggested Citation

  • Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Kartasheva, Anastasia & Lundblad, Christian T. & Wagner, Wolf, 2018. "Insurers as asset managers and systemic risk," ESRB Working Paper Series 75, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201875
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    13. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    14. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
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    16. Ellul, Andrew & Lundblad, Christian T & Wang, Yihui & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak, 2015. "Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 10450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Knox & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2024. "Insurers’ Investments and Insurance Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2021. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response [Funding value adjustments]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5309-5351.
    3. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    4. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    5. Kristy Jansen & Sven Klingler & Angelo Ranaldo & Patty Duijm, 2024. "Pension Liquidity Risk," Working Papers 801, DNB.
    6. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
    7. Hałaj, Grzegorz & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Battiston, Stefano, 2024. "Financial stability through the lens of complex systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Bo Becker & Marcus M Opp & Farzad Saidi, 2022. "Regulatory Forbearance in the U.S. Insurance Industry: The Effects of Removing Capital Requirements for an Asset Class," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5438-5482.
    9. Luciano, Elisa & Rochet, Jean Charles, 2022. "The fluctuations of insurers’ risk appetite," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Thiemo Fetzer & Benjamin Guin & Felipe Netto & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 334, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2022. "Banking networks, systemic risk, and the credit cycle in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Thiemo Fetzer & Benjamin Guin & Felipe Netto & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_590, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    13. di Iasio, Giovanni & Kryczka, Dominika, 2021. "Market failures in market-based finance," Working Paper Series 2545, European Central Bank.
    14. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2022. "The Fragility of Market Risk Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 815-862, April.
    15. Becker, Bo & Opp, Marcus & Saidi, Farzad, 2020. "Regulatory Forbearance in the U.S. Insurance Industry: The Effects of Eliminating Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 14373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Hombert, Johan & Möhlmann, Axel & Weiß, Matthias, 2021. "Inter-cohort risk sharing with long-term guarantees: Evidence from German participating contracts," Discussion Papers 10/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Fetzer, Thiemo & Guin, Benjamin & Netto, Felipe, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral : Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1514, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Ge, Shan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2021. "The role of financial conditions in portfolio choices: The case of insurers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 803-830.
    19. Elisa Luciano & Jean Charles Rochet, 2021. "Risk Appetite Fluctuations in the Insurance Industry," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 666 JEL Classification: G, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    20. Antonio Falato & Ali Hortaçsu & Dan Li & Chaehee Shin, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers in Debt Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3055-3102, December.
    21. Boermans, Martijn A. & van der Kroft, Bram, 2024. "Capital regulation induced reaching for systematic yield: Financial instability through fire sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Chia‐Chun Chiang & Greg Niehaus, 2020. "Correlated Trading by Life Insurers and Its Impact on Bond Prices," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 597-625, September.
    23. Kristy Jansen, 2023. "Long-term Investors, Demand Shifts, and Yields," Working Papers 769, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; insurance companies; inter-connectedness; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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