IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12560.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fragility of Market Risk Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Koijen, Ralph
  • Yogo, Motohiro

Abstract

Insurers sell retail financial products called variable annuities that package mu- tual funds with minimum return guarantees over long horizons. Variable annuities accounted for $1.5 trillion or 34 percent of U.S. life insurer liabilities in 2015. Sales fell and fees increased after the 2008 financial crisis as the higher valuation of existing liabilities stressed risk-based capital. Insurers also made guarantees less generous or stopped offering guarantees entirely to reduce risk exposure. We develop an equilib- rium model of insurance markets in which financial frictions and market power are important determinants of pricing, contract characteristics, and the degree of market incompleteness.

Suggested Citation

  • Koijen, Ralph & Yogo, Motohiro, 2018. "The Fragility of Market Risk Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12560
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2015. "The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 445-475, January.
    2. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian T. Lundblad & Yihui Wang, 2015. "Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2489-2538, December.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. Robert McMenamin & Zain Mohey-Deen & Anna L. Paulson & Richard J. Rosen, 2012. "How liquid are U.S. life insurance liabilities?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep.
    5. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2015. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1863-1902, October.
    6. Kenneth A. Froot, 2007. "Risk Management, Capital Budgeting, and Capital Structure Policy for Insurers and Reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 273-299, June.
    7. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2007. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow, Debreu, and Rawls, with Applications to Social Security Design," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 523-547, August.
    8. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2010. "Variable payout annuities and dynamic portfolio choice in retirement," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 163-183, April.
    11. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    12. Jeffrey R. Brown & James M. Poterba, 2006. "Household Ownership of Variable Annuities," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 163-191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hombert, Johan & Lyonnet, Victor, 2017. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Life Insurance: Evidence from France," HEC Research Papers Series 1237, HEC Paris, revised 29 Nov 2017.
    14. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2009. "Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1688-1699, September.
    15. Alejandro Drexler & Thanases Plestis & Richard J. Rosen, 2017. "How Much Risk Do Variable Annuity Guarantees Pose to Life Insurers?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    16. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2006. "Financial valuation of guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 21-38, February.
    17. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1997. "Financial Markets, Intermediaries, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 523-546, June.
    18. Bergstresser, Daniel & Poterba, James, 2002. "Do after-tax returns affect mutual fund inflows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 381-414, March.
    19. James M. Poterba, 2006. "Introduction to "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20"," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages -5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dumas, Bernard, 1989. "Two-Person Dynamic Equilibrium in the Capital Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 157-188.
    21. Kling, Alexander & Ruez, Frederik & Ruß, Jochen, 2011. "The Impact of Stochastic Volatility on Pricing, Hedging, and Hedge Efficiency of Withdrawal Benefit Guarantees in Variable Annuities," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 511-545, November.
    22. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    23. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Anastasia Kartasheva & Christian T Lundblad & Wolf Wagner, 2022. "Insurers as Asset Managers and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5483-5534.
    24. Clemens Sialm & Laura Starks, 2012. "Mutual Fund Tax Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1397-1422, August.
    25. James M. Poterba (ed.), 2006. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661985, April.
    26. Yeung Lewis Chan & Leonid Kogan, 2002. "Catching Up with the Joneses: Heterogeneous Preferences and the Dynamics of Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1255-1285, December.
    27. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    28. Ali Hortaçsu & Chad Syverson, 2004. "Product Differentiation, Search Costs, and Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry: A Case Study of S&P 500 Index Funds," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 403-456.
    29. Kyal Berends & Thomas B. King, 2015. "Derivatives and Collateral at U.S. Life Insurers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 21-37.
    30. Anil K. Kashyap, 2002. "Sorting out Japan's financial crisis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 26(Q IV), pages 42-55.
    31. James Poterba, 2006. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote06-1.
    32. Lee, Soon-Jae & Mayers, David & Smith Jr., Clifford W., 1997. "Guaranty funds and risk-taking Evidence from the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-24, April.
    33. J. Hombert & V. Lyonnet, 2017. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Life Insurance: Evidence from France," Débats économiques et financiers 30, Banque de France.
    34. Ellul, Andrew & Lundblad, Christian T & Wang, Yihui & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak, 2015. "Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 10450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Félix Hufeld & Ralph S. J. Koijen & Christian Thimann, 2017. "The Economics, Regulation, and Systemic Risk of Insurance Markets," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01394318, HAL.
    36. Bauer, Daniel & Kling, Alexander & Russ, Jochen, 2008. "A Universal Pricing Framework for Guaranteed Minimum Benefits in Variable Annuities 1," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 621-651, November.
    37. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    38. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    39. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Theo E. Nijman & Bas J. M. Werker, 2011. "Optimal Annuity Risk Management," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 799-833.
    40. Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Schorfheide, Frank, 2009. "Estimation with overidentifying inequality moment conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 136-154, December.
    41. Johan Hombert & Victor Lyonnet, 2017. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Life Insurance: Evidence from France," Working Papers hal-02068358, HAL.
    42. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    43. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Mark Egan & Shan Ge & Johnny Tang, 2022. "Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5334-5386.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-29 12:24:21

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Knox & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2024. "Insurers’ Investments and Insurance Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fung, Derrick W.H. & Lee, Wing Yan & Yang, Charles C. & Yeh, Jason J.H., 2024. "Risk taking, performance, and resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from public property-casualty insurers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    4. Thorsten Moenig, 2022. "It's RILA time: An introduction to registered index‐linked annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 339-369, June.
    5. Hombert, Johan & Möhlmann, Axel & Weiß, Matthias, 2021. "Inter-cohort risk sharing with long-term guarantees: Evidence from German participating contracts," Discussion Papers 10/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Stéphane Verani & Pei Cheng Yu, 2024. "What’s Wrong with Annuity Markets?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1981-2024.
    7. Zach Y. Brown & Mark L. Egan & Jihye Jeon & Chuqing Jin & Alex A. Wu, 2023. "Why Do Index Funds Have Market Power? Quantifying Frictions in the Index Fund Market," NBER Working Papers 31778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    9. Bo Becker & Marcus M Opp & Farzad Saidi, 2022. "Regulatory Forbearance in the U.S. Insurance Industry: The Effects of Removing Capital Requirements for an Asset Class," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5438-5482.
    10. Janet Gao & Shan Ge & Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2023. "How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?," Working Papers 23-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Mark Egan & Shan Ge & Johnny Tang, 2022. "Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5334-5386.
    13. Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.
    14. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Maggistro, Rosario & Zoccolan, Ivan, 2024. "Risk-neutral valuation of GLWB riders in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Thiemo Fetzer & Benjamin Guin & Felipe Netto & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_590, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    16. Johan Hombert & Victor Lyonnet, 2022. "Can Risk Be Shared across Investor Cohorts? Evidence from a Popular Savings Product," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5387-5437.
    17. Robert Engle & Shan Ge & Hyeyoon Jung & Xuran Zeng, 2023. "Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of Insurers," Staff Reports 1066, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Greg Niehaus, 2023. "Personal taxes, cost of insurer equity capital, and the case of offshore hedge fund reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 249-281, June.
    19. Lee, Hangsuck & Ha, Hongjun & Lee, Minha, 2024. "A sharing rule for multi-period interest-sensitive insurance contracts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. van Bilsen, Servaas & Linders, Daniël, 2019. "Affordable and adequate annuities with stable payouts: Fantasy or reality?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 19-42.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2021. "The evolution from life insurance to financial engineering," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 46(2), pages 89-111, September.
    2. Daniel Bauer & Thorsten Moenig, 2023. "Cheaper by the bundle: The interaction of frictions and option exercise in variable annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 459-486, June.
    3. Kirti, Divya, 2024. "When gambling for resurrection is too risky," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin Knox & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2024. "Insurers’ Investments and Insurance Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Bo Becker & Marcus M Opp & Farzad Saidi, 2022. "Regulatory Forbearance in the U.S. Insurance Industry: The Effects of Removing Capital Requirements for an Asset Class," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5438-5482.
    7. Becker, Bo & Opp, Marcus & Saidi, Farzad, 2020. "Regulatory Forbearance in the U.S. Insurance Industry: The Effects of Eliminating Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 14373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mark Egan & Shan Ge & Johnny Tang, 2022. "Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5334-5386.
    9. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Anastasia Kartasheva & Christian T Lundblad & Wolf Wagner, 2022. "Insurers as Asset Managers and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5483-5534.
    10. Greg Niehaus, 2023. "Personal taxes, cost of insurer equity capital, and the case of offshore hedge fund reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 249-281, June.
    11. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    12. Grochola, Nicolaus & Browne, Mark Joseph & Gründl, Helmut & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2021. "Exploring the market risk profiles of U.S. and European life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 39/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    13. Ge, Shan & Weisbach, Michael S., 2021. "The role of financial conditions in portfolio choices: The case of insurers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 803-830.
    14. Chen, Xuanjuan & Sun, Zhenzhen & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2020. "Does operating risk affect portfolio risk? Evidence from insurers' securities holding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2016. "Shadow Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1265-1287, May.
    16. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "How to Calculate Systemic Risk Surcharges," NBER Chapters, in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 175-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ishita Sen, 2023. "Regulatory Limits to Risk Management," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(6), pages 2175-2223.
    18. Axel Möhlmann, 2021. "Interest rate risk of life insurers: Evidence from accounting data," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(2), pages 587-612, June.
    19. Bijlsma, Melle & Vermeulen, Robert, 2016. "Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-154.
    20. Danny Yagan, 2014. "Riding the Bubble? Chasing Returns into Illiquid Assets," NBER Working Papers 20360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.