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Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Brunnermeier
  • Laurent Clerc
  • Yanis El Omari
  • Silvia Gabrieli
  • Steffen Kern
  • Christoph Memmel
  • Tuomas Peltonen
  • Natalia Podlich
  • Martin Scheicher
  • Guillaume Vuillemey

Abstract

Over the past few years the CDS market’s role has evolved from mostly providing default protection towards credit risk trading. The first-ever credit event in a developed country’s sovereign CDS has further highlighted the importance of the CDS market from a macro-prudential perspective. Developments in the European sovereign CDS market are a part of the major structural shift in euro sovereign debt: in the market’s view, there has been a significant shift from sovereign debt as a (default-free) risk-free benchmark (i.e. bearing interest rate risk only) to sovereign debt as a credit risk asset. Therefore, a significant repricing of the entire asset category has taken place, with major implications ranging from asset allocation to risk management. This implies that some policy issues are not necessarily and exclusively related to the CDS market, but are part of broader developments in the EU financial system. This Occasional Paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the CDS market from a macroprudential perspective. In order to so, a wide range of analytical approaches is applied: Structural analysis of the EU CDS market: description of the market structure, key segments, concentration and evolution over time. Network analysis of bilateral CDS exposures: description of the structure and resilience of the network at an aggregate level as well as of sub-samples. In particular, analysis is conducted on: (i) the aggregated CDS network; (ii) various sub-networks, such as the sovereign CDS network; and (iii) networks for particular CDS reference entities. In order to carry out this analysis, we applied the established literature on interbank and payment systems networks to the CDS exposures network. “Super-spreader” analysis: identification of key “too interconnected to fail” market participants, their activities in the CDS market and their risk-bearing capacity. Scenario analysis of sovereign credit risk: the impact of sovereign credit events on the EU banking system and their potential spillovers. Domino effects in the CDS market: estimation of default chain scenarios for major participants in the CDS market; again, following the literature on interbank networks, we analysed the network impact of the collapse of a major market participant. Comparison of market- and exposure-based assessments of contagion: systemic risk rankings based on market price estimates (e.g. CoVaR) are compared with the rankings obtained using confidential DTCC exposure data in order to understand to what extent market participants are aware of who is a systemically relevant trader in the CDS market and whether these measures of systemic risk are consistent. JEL Classification: G18, G33, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brunnermeier & Laurent Clerc & Yanis El Omari & Silvia Gabrieli & Steffen Kern & Christoph Memmel & Tuomas Peltonen & Natalia Podlich & Martin Scheicher & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2013. "Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 04, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkops:201304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Scheicher, Martin, 2023. "Intermediation in US and EU bond and swap markets: stylised facts, trends and impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 24, European Systemic Risk Board.
    3. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidences from regulatory data," Working Paper Series 2721, European Central Bank.
    6. D’Errico, Marco & Battiston, Stefano & Peltonen, Tuomas & Scheicher, Martin, 2018. "How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 53-74.
    7. Kubitza, Christian & Pelizzon, Loriana & Getmansky, Mila, 2018. "The pitfalls of central clearing in the presence of systematic risk," ICIR Working Paper Series 31/18, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    8. Bardoscia, Marco & Ferrara, Gerardo & Vause, Nicholas & Yoganayagam, Michael, 2021. "Simulating liquidity stress in the derivatives market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    10. Bellia, Mario & Girardi, Giulio & Panzica, Roberto & Pelizzon, Loriana & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2024. "The demand for central clearing: To clear or not to clear, that is the question!," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Agathe Sadeghi & Zachary Feinstein, 2024. "Statistical Validation of Contagion Centrality in Financial Networks," Papers 2404.14337, arXiv.org.
    12. Vuillemey, G. & Breton, R., 2014. "Endogenous Derivative Networks," Working papers 483, Banque de France.
    13. Josef Brechler & Vaclav Hausenblas & Zlatuse Komarkova & Miroslav Plasil, 2014. "Similarity and Clustering of Banks: Application to the Credit Exposures of the Czech Banking Sector," Research and Policy Notes 2014/04, Czech National Bank.
    14. Clerc, L. & Gabrieli, S. & Kern, S. & El Omari, Y., 2014. "Monitoring the European CDS Market through Networks: Implications for Contagion Risks," Working papers 477, Banque de France.
    15. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    16. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    17. Danilo Drago & Concetta Carnevale & Raffaele Gallo, 2019. "Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 644-652, May.
    18. Anouk Levels & René de Sousa van Stralen & Sînziana Kroon Petrescu & Iman van Lelyveld, 2018. "CDS market structure and risk flows: the Dutch case," DNB Working Papers 592, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Ferrara, Gerardo & Kim, Jun Sung & Koo, Bonsoo & Liu, Zijun, 2021. "Counterparty choice in the UK credit default swap market: An empirical matching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-74.
    20. Name 1 Dieter Wang Email 1 & Iman (I.P.P.) van Lelyveld & Julia (J.) Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-100/IV, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS; contagion; systemic risk; derivatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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