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Short-Sellers: Informed but Restricted

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  • Fernando D. Chague
  • Rodrigo De-Losso, Alan De Genaro, Bruno C. Giovannetti

Abstract

According to theory, the level of short-selling can predict short-run future returns throughout two channels. One is related to the demand-side of the stock lending market: short-sellers are informed. The other is related to the supply-side: short-sellers are restricted. Measuring the importance of each channel is empirically challenging once, in general, supply and demand in the stock lending market are not directly observable. This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset that contains actual shifts in lending supply for stocks on the Brazilian market, and proposes an identification strategy for the effects of both supply and demand on stock prices. We find that both channels are important

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando D. Chague & Rodrigo De-Losso, Alan De Genaro, Bruno C. Giovannetti, 2013. "Short-Sellers: Informed but Restricted," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2013_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2013wpecon5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    2. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    4. Blau, Benjamin M. & Wade, Chip, 2012. "Informed or speculative: Short selling analyst recommendations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 14-25.
    5. Blocher, Jesse & Reed, Adam V. & Van Wesep, Edward D., 2013. "Connecting two markets: An equilibrium framework for shorts, longs, and stock loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 302-322.
    6. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    7. Rodrigo De-Losso & Alan De Genaro, Bruno C. Giovannetti, 2012. "Testing the Effects of Short-Selling Restrictions on Asset Prices," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Pablo José Campos de Carvalho, 2021. "Short‐selling costs and asymmetric price response to economic shocks: A transaction cost explanation to price overshooting," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1745-1772, April.
    2. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos, 2014. "Economic gains of realized volatility in the Brazilian stock market," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 12(3), pages 319-349.
    3. Chague, Fernando Daniel & Bueno, Rodrigo de Losso da Silveira & Giovannetti, Bruno Cara, 2018. "The short-selling skill of institutions and individuals: a market-wide and out-of-sample analysis," Textos para discussão 469, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Fernando Chague & Bruno Giovannetti & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2021. "The Contrarian Put," Discussion Papers 2106, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & De Genaro, Alan & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2017. "Well-connected short-sellers pay lower loan fees: A market-wide analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 646-670.
    6. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pannella, Pierluca, 2024. "Short-covering bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Fernando Chague & Rodrigo De Losso, Bruno Giovannetti, 2017. "Uncovering Skilled Short-sellers," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_01, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Daniel Sales Casula & Rodrigo De-Losso, 2019. "Short Selling, the supply side: are lenders price makers?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_53, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. de Genaro, Alan & Avellaneda, Marco, 2018. "Does the Lending Rate Impact ETF's Prices?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 38(2).
    10. Fernando Chague & Rodrigo De-Losso, Alan De Genaro, Bruno Giovannetti, 2015. "Why Do Different Short-sellers Pay Different Loan Fees? A Market-wide Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_17, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    11. Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2019. "The short-selling skill of institutions and individuals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 77-91.
    12. de Genaro, Alan & Avellaneda, Marco, 2019. "Does the Lending Rate Impact ETF's Prices?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 38(2), January.
    13. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Pablo José Campos de Carvalho, 2015. "The Cost of Shorting, Asymmetric Performance Reaction and the Price Response to Economic Shocks," Working Papers Series 383, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short-seller; short-selling; short-selling restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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