IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rss/jnljfe/v4i1p1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Fundamental Value and the Size of Rational Speculative Bubbles of Hong Kong Stock Market during the Year 2008

Author

Listed:
  • Devendran Indiran
  • Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim
  • Wan Muhamad Amir W. Ahmad

Abstract

Rational speculative bubble can be well-defined as transient upward movements of stock prices above fundamental value due to speculative investors. The Generalised Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (GJLS) model has been developed as a flexible device to diagnose the size of rational speculative bubble. This model is combines the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles with finite-time singular crash hazard rates, behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders as well as mathematical statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions. It has been employed successfully to a large variety of stock bubbles in many different markets. The purpose of this study is to predict intrinsic value and size of rational speculative bubble of Hong Kong stock market during global economic crisis 2008. The intrinsic value predicted by using the selected time interval is 20997.03 which shows that the market value is deviated about 33.63% from its fundamental value. This deviation is called as size of the speculative rational bubble that formed during global economic crisis 2008. By using the predicted intrinsic value, we found that the rational speculative bubble start to form and grow in Hong Kong stock market from 15/06/2006 to 10/12/2007. There are two bubble phases found in the period of selected time interval. It is essential needs for researcher to study on financial bubbles. It is because the economic bubbles are one of the serious issue that give negative implications to the development of economy which is the factor leads to an economy crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Devendran Indiran & Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim & Wan Muhamad Amir W. Ahmad, 2015. "Estimating Fundamental Value and the Size of Rational Speculative Bubbles of Hong Kong Stock Market during the Year 2008," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfe:v4i1p1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rassweb.org/admin/pages/ResearchPapers/Paper%201_1496868683.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    2. Lux, Thomas & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 589-610, August.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word‐of‐Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2801-2824, December.
    5. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    6. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    7. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    9. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    10. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Diagnostics of Rational Expectation Financial Bubbles with Stochastic Mean-Reverting Termination Times," Papers 0911.1921, arXiv.org.
    2. Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
    3. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Douglas R. Emery, 2022. "Negative bubbles and the market for “dreams”: “Lemons” in the looking glass," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 5-16, March.
    5. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    6. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    7. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Huberman, Gur, 2005. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 805-827, May.
    8. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    9. Hu, Yingyi & Zhao, Tiao & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Noise trading, institutional trading, and opinion divergence: Evidence on intraday data in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 74-89.
    10. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    11. Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000861, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Hauser, Florian & Huber, Jürgen, 2012. "Short-selling constraints as cause for price distortions: An experimental study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1279-1298.
    14. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
    15. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
    16. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    17. Asquith, Paul & Au, Andrea S. & Covert, Thomas & Pathak, Parag A., 2013. "The market for borrowing corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 155-182.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Martin Oehmke, 2014. "Predatory Short Selling," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2153-2195.
    19. Tibor Neugebauer & Sascha Füllbrunn, 2013. "Deflating Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Comparative Statics of Margin Regulations," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-14, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    20. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "A Risk-Centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(3), pages 1493-1566.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfe:v4i1p1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danish Khalil (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.rassweb.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.