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Improving Income Stabilisation in EMU: An Analytical Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Carnot
  • Phil Evans
  • Serena Fatica
  • Gilles Mourre

Abstract

This paper explores whether collective insurance schemes of various kinds could improve the degree of cyclical income stabilisation and the operation of fiscal stabilisers in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We review the potential issues, the underlying trade-offs and the necessary conditions for such schemes to be workable. The paper discusses "good" design features, which raise the potential efficiency and acceptability of these mechanisms. It argues that such schemes would preferably focus on large shocks, moderate the boom times as well as cushion adverse shocks, and include a degree of budgetary prudence to cater for real-time uncertainty in assessing business cycles. It carries out retrospective simulations using both "ex post" and "real-time" data. The results suggest that all the schemes considered would have provided non-negligible income stabilisation over the past 10-20 years, although somewhat less so when operating on the basis of data available in real time. The stabilisation schemes reviewed do not require particularly large or persistent payments into or out of them.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Carnot & Phil Evans & Serena Fatica & Gilles Mourre, 2014. "Improving Income Stabilisation in EMU: An Analytical Exploration," Working Papers CEB 14-022, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/174988
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2013. "A Fiscal Union for the Euro: Some Lessons from History ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 449-488, September.
    3. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    4. Melitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frederic, 2002. "Regional redistribution and stabilization by the center in Canada, France, the UK and the US:: A reassessment and new tests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 263-286, November.
    5. Laura Gonzalez Cabanillas & Alessio Terzi, 2012. "The accuracy of the European Commission's forecasts re-examined," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 476, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk-sharing; income smoothing; fiscal stabilisers; transfer scheme; output gap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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