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Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

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  • Michael Hanke
  • Rolf Poulsen
  • Alex Weissensteiner

Abstract

Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level. We use a compound option pricing approach to estimate the latent exchange rate that would prevail in the absence of the SNB's interventions, together with the market's confidence in the SNB's commitment to this policy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:1103–1116, 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hanke & Rolf Poulsen & Alex Weissensteiner, 2015. "Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(12), pages 1103-1116, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:12:p:1103-1116
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2016. "Swiss franc's one-sided target zone during 2011–2015," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-67.
    2. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate in January 2015: was it expected?," BIS Working Papers 652, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Nikola Mirkov & Igor Pozdeev & Paul Söderlind, 2016. "Toward Removal of the Swiss Franc Cap: Market Expectations and Verbal Interventions," Working Papers 2016-10, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    6. Iain J. Clark & Saeed Amen, 2017. "Implied Distributions from GBPUSD Risk-Reversals and Implication for Brexit Scenarios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Mirkov, Nikola & Pozdeev, Igor & Söderlind, Paul, 2019. "Verbal interventions and exchange rate policies: The case of Swiss franc cap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 42-54.
    8. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
    9. Markus Hertrich & Heinz Zimmermann, 2017. "On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 567-578, March.
    10. Hertrich Markus, 2016. "The Costs of Implementing a Unilateral One-Sided Exchange Rate Target Zone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 91-120, May.
    11. Streit, Daniel, 2016. "Firm-level effects of asymmetric intervention in foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Swiss currency floor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 289-312.
    12. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.

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