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A Term Structure Interest Rate Model with the Exit Time from the Negative Interest Rate Policy

Author

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  • Kentaro Kikuchi

    (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University)

Abstract

In the government bond markets in Japan and a number of European countries, neg-ative interest rates have been observed in recent years. Incorporating a negative lowerbound for interest rates into a term structure model makes it possible for the model toreplicate yield curves that include negative rates. In this study, we propose a new termstructure model with a stochastic lower bound where the short rate is de ned as the sumof the quadratic form of the Gaussian process and a negative lower bound for interestrates. The lower bound is characterized by a Brownian bridge with the random intervalpinned at zero at the starting time and the end time of a negative interest rate policy(NIRP). Under this setting, we derive a zero coupon bond price formula by imposing theno arbitrage condition. We calibrate our proposed model using Japanese yield curve dataand estimate the implied posterior distribution of the time to exit from the NIRP.

Suggested Citation

  • Kentaro Kikuchi, "undated". "A Term Structure Interest Rate Model with the Exit Time from the Negative Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers CRR Discussion Paper Series B: Financial 19, Shiga University, Faculty of Economics,Center for Risk Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:shg:dpapeb:19
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econ.shiga-u.ac.jp/risk/DPB19Kikuchi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Kohei Marumo & Takashi Nakayama & Shinichi Nishioka & Toshihiro Yoshida, 2003. "Extracting Market Expectations on the Duration of the Zero Interest Rate Policy from Japan's Bond Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Financial Markets Departm, Bank of Japan.
    8. Kentaro Kikuchi & Kohei Shintani, 2012. "Comparative Analysis of Zero Coupon Yield Curve Estimation Methods Using JGB Price Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 75-122, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; No arbitrage condition; Quadratic Gaussian term structuremodel; Brownian bridge; Negative interest rate policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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