IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sgo/wpaper/2001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Kuk Mo Jung

    (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)

  • Ju Hyun Pyun

    (Korea University Business School, Seoul)

Abstract

A long-run relationship between money (inflation or interest rates), unemployment, and equity prices are studied. We first document robust empirical evidence that a statistically significant joint relationship between the long term trends of three variables exists in the post-WWII U.S. data: (i) a positive relationship between inflation (or interest rates) and unemployment; (ii) a negative relationship between unemployment and equity prices; and (iii) a negative relationship between inflation (or interest rates) and equity prices. Then, we provide a unified framework that incorporates money, unemployment, and equity prices with microfoundation and empirical relevance. The model predicts the empirically found joint relationship in the long run. The calibration exercises also show that the model results driven solely by US monetary policy can account for 62.9% and 29.8% of variations of the long-term trends of US unemployment rate and real equity prices, respectively

Suggested Citation

  • Kuk Mo Jung & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2020. "A Long-Run Approach to Money, Unemployment and Equity Prices," Working Papers 2001, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    • Handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://163.239.156.99/wpaper/JKM_RIME_2020_01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    3. Roger Farmer, 2012. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Gylfi Zoega, 2012. "Employment and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3343-3355, September.
    5. Kalai, Ehud, 1977. "Proportional Solutions to Bargaining Situations: Interpersonal Utility Comparisons," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(7), pages 1623-1630, October.
    6. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E.A., 2007. "Natural rate doubts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 797-825, March.
    7. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
    8. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    9. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    10. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 35-79, February.
    12. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    13. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2015. "Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises," NBER Working Papers 21528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the 20th century," Working Papers 2007-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Bergin, Paul R. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2008. "The extensive margin and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1222-1237, October.
    16. Faig, Miquel & Jerez, Belen, 2005. "A theory of commerce," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 60-99, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Gabrovski & Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Ioannis Kospentaris & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The real effects of financial disruptions in a monetary economy," Working Papers 2301, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Mohammed Ait Lahcen & Garth Baughman & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "Racial Unemployment Gaps and the Disparate Impact of the Inflation Tax," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 073, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2019. "A Monetary Model of Bilateral Over-the-Counter Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 205-227, July.
    3. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2019. "The role of trading frictions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Huangfu, Stella & Sun, Hongfei, 2020. "The role of search frictions in the long-run relationships between inflation, unemployment and capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Berentsen, Aleksander & Huber, Samuel & Marchesiani, Alessandro, 2016. "The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 303-323.
    6. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2020. "Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1635-1672, June.
    7. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "Monetary policy and efficiency in over-the-counter financial trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1699-1754, November.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    9. Miroslav Gabrovski & Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Ioannis Kospentaris & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The real effects of financial disruptions in a monetary economy," Working Papers 2301, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Lukas Altermatt & Kohei Iwasaki & Randall Wright, 2023. "General Equilibrium with Multiple Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 267-291, December.
    11. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1128, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Platonov, Konstantin, 2019. "Animal spirits in a monetary model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 60-77.
    13. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," Working Papers 789, DNB.
    14. Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2014. "Quantitative Easing and the Liquidity Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 70686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2016.
    15. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    16. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    17. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    18. Ait Lahcen, Mohammed & Baughman, Garth & Rabinovich, Stanislav & van Buggenum, Hugo, 2022. "Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Lebeau, Lucie, 2020. "Credit frictions and participation in over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; Equity Prices; SearchModels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jung Hur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/risogkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.