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Auswirkungen populationsdynamischer Veränderungen in Fischbeständen auf die Fischereiwirtschaft in der Barentssee

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  • P. Michael Link

    (Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg)

Abstract

Anhand eines bioökonomischen Simulationsmodells sollen die Auswirkungen von Änderungen der intrinsischen Wachstumsrate bzw. der ökologischen Tragfähigkeit wichtiger Fischbestände in der Barentssee untersucht werden. Im Modell werden exemplarisch die Bestände von Kabeljau (Gadus morhua) und Lodde (Mallotus villosus) berücksichtigt, zwischen denen eine Räuber-Beute-Beziehung besteht. Betrachtet werden drei miteinander konkurrierende Fischereiflotten: die Trawlfischerei und die küstennahe Fischerei von Kabeljau sowie die Ringwadenfischerei von Lodde. Jeweils über einen Zeitraum von 100 Jahren werden verschiedene Szenarien berechnet, bei denen die Populationsdynamik der Fischbestände durch eine vorgegebene Verringerung der intrinsischen Wachstumsraten bzw. der ökologischen Tragfähigkeiten verändert wird. Die Bestandsgrößen und Fangmengen beider Fischarten müssen für jede einzelne Fangperiode im simulierten Zeitraum berechnet werden. Außerdem wird der Gegenwartswert der Gewinne aus der Fischerei in dem Zeitraum von 15 Jahren nach dem Eintreten der Veränderung der Populationsdynamik bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse, die sich aus den Vergleichen der Szenarien ergeben, zeigen, daß sowohl eine geringere intrinsische Wachstumsrate als auch eine kleinere ökologische Tragfähigkeit zu einer Abnahme der Fischbestände und demzufolge langfristig zu geringeren Fangmengen führt. Kurzfristig allerdings sind die wirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen recht gering. Durch eine Erhöhung des Fischereiaufwands in den ersten Jahren nach der Veränderung der Populationsdynamik kann es in einigen Fällen sogar zu einer Erhöhung der Erträge aus der Fischerei kommen. Dadurch werden die langfristig zu erwartenden negativen Auswirkungen, die durch die beeinträchtigte Bestandsdynamik hervorgerufen werden, verschleiert.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Michael Link, 2003. "Auswirkungen populationsdynamischer Veränderungen in Fischbeständen auf die Fischereiwirtschaft in der Barentssee," Working Papers FNU-29, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Barents Sea; bioeconomic modeling; capelin; cod; population dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery

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