The impact of climate change on aquatic risk from agricultural pesticides in the US

Agricultural pesticides have adverse impacts on water quality and aquatic species. These impacts are sensitive to climate because pest pressure and corresponding pesticide application rates vary with weather and climate conditions. In this paper, we investigate how climate change affects the acute and chronic toxicity risk to algae, daphnia, and fish from the ten most hazardous pesticides in twelve coastal states of the US. We combine climate change projections from the Canadian and Hadley climate model, statistically estimated dependencies of pesticide applications to climate and weather variables, and the environmental risk indicator REXTOX developed by the OECD. On average, we find that climate change is likely to increase the toxicity risk to aquatic species because of increased application of agricultural pesticides. Algae appear to be the most negatively affected category. Across five broad crop groups, pesticide use on fruits and vegetables contributes the most to increased aquatic pollution. Within the twelve coastal states, the highest impacts are found in Texas, Florida, California, South and North Carolina.