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Systemic Banking Crisis and Macroeconomic Leading Indicators

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  • Johan Winbladh

    (Webster University, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify leading macroeconomic indicators causing or coinciding with systemic banking crises. The clear focus on systemic banking crisis leave little ambiguity of what constitutes a banking crisis. The macroeconomic leading indicators are chosen with economic theory in mind. The indicators are tested using multivariate regression with a dichotomous variable for systemic banking crisis or no systemic banking crisis. The results shows that inflation is the strongest leading indicator coinciding with systemic banking crisis in both advanced economies as well as in South American middle income economies. Inflation is a broad indicator of general economic difficulties as well as for policy related issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Winbladh, 2017. "Systemic Banking Crisis and Macroeconomic Leading Indicators," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 4707470, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:4707470
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic banking crisis; multivariate regression analysis; macroeconomic leading indicators; and macroeconomic fundamental problems.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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