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Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia Using a Dynamic Model of Fertility and Employment

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  • Fabián Slonimczyk
  • Anna Yurko

Abstract

With declining population and fertility rates below replacement levels, Russia is currently facing a demographic crisis. Starting in 2007, the federal government has pursued an ambitious pro-natalist policy. Women who give birth to at least two children are entitled to "maternity capital" assistance ($11,000). In this paper we estimate a structural dynamic programming model of fertility and labor force participation in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy. We find that the program increased long-run fertility by about 0.15 children per woman.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabián Slonimczyk & Anna Yurko, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia Using a Dynamic Model of Fertility and Employment," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 125, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    • Handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:2013:125
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordey Yastrebov, 2016. "Intergenerational Social Mobility in Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 69/SOC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Natalya Y. Shelkova, 2020. "Stronger women, better men? Family bargaining and public policy in contemporary Russia," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 335-355, June.
    3. Nikolai Botev, 2015. "Could Pronatalist Policies Discourage Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 301-314, June.
    4. Svetlana Biryukova & Oxana Sinyavskaya & Irina Nurimanova, 2016. "Estimating effects of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and subsequent births in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 68/SOC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Dormidontova, Yulia (Дормидонтова, Юлия) & Kazakova, Yuliya (Казакова, Юлия) & Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор) & Grishina, E. (Гришина, Е.) & Tsatsura, Elena (Цацура, Елена), 2016. "Analysis of the Effectiveness of Social Support for Families with Children in Russia: The Example of the Altai Territory and Samara Region [Анализ Эффективности Социальной Поддержки Семей С Детьми ," Working Papers 3134, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Slonimczyk, Fabián & Yurko, Anna, 2014. "Assessing the impact of the maternity capital policy in Russia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 265-281.
    7. Yelena I. Andreeva & Dmitry G. Bychkov & Olesya A. Feoktistova, 2018. "Introducing New Family Support Benefits in Russia: an Estimate of Public Expenditures," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 36-46, April.
    8. Slonimczyk, Fabian & Gimpelson, Vladimir, 2013. "Informality and Mobility: Evidence from Russian Panel Data," IZA Discussion Papers 7703, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; female labor supply; structural estimation; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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